AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 3/4 to 1 1/4 cents higher at midday in the front months. The USDA reported 965,608 MT of corn was inspected for export for the week ending June 22. That is 20.88% behind the previous week and 33.47% lower than a year ago. This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show corn ratings a shade higher at 68%-69% good/excellent. Looking ahead to this Friday’s 2017 Planted Acreage report, analysts on average are expecting 89.903 million acres were planted this spring, slightly down from March’s intentions number. AgRural is estimating that 9.3% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop is harvested, down from 12.5% last year. China is expected to sell 1.18 MMT of corn from state reserves on Thursday, with an additional 2.43 MMT on Friday. Ukraine has lowered their corn production forecast to 25.6 MMT from 28 MMT a year ago.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.58 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.66 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.76 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.86 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents in the green on Monday. July 17 soy meal is up 30 cents, with soy oil down 2 points in the front month. In this morning’s Export inspections report, soybean exports of 315,099 MT were reported, 14.39% larger than last week and 6.52% above last year for this week. The USDA reported a private export sale of 110,000 MT to Bangladesh this morning through their daily system, with 16/17 delivery. Traders are estimating soybean condition ratings to increase over last week’s 67% g/e by 1%-2%. Traders are projecting soybean acreage to show a slight increase over the March number, at 89.750 million acres, with a range of 88.466-91.0 million acres in the published estimates.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.07 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.12, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.12 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.13 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $293.90, up $0.30

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.59, down $0.02

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently mixed in the nearby months, with KC and CBT contracts lower and MPLS seeing gains of around 5 cents. Traders are expecting another decline in the spring wheat condition ratings from USDA this afternoon. Wheat export inspections of 629,070 MT were reported this morning, down 15.01% from last week but up 22.55% from this time last year. Analysts are expecting the Planted Acreage report to show all wheat at 46 million acres, with winter at 32.83 mac, spring at 11.2 mac, and durum at 2 mac. Those are relatively the same as the March report, with at traders seeing a shift from winter to spring of around 100,000 acres. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of US, Canadian, or Australian wheat, with the tender closing on July 3.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.52, down 7 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.56 1/4, down 8 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.67, up 5 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are showing strong “sell the rumor, buy the fact” gains of $1.65 to $2.65 on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are posting limit gains at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.09 on June 22 at $147.09. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday morning report, with choice boxes up 3 cents at $239.78. Select was $2.08 higher, with an average of $218.80. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $20.98. On Friday, the USDA Cattle on Feed report showed June 1 COF at 11.096 million head, up 2.7% from June 2016. May placements were 12.18% larger the last year at 2.119 million head, with 1.951 million head being marketed in May, up 8.75% from the year prior. The placements number was larger than trade estimates.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $120.850, up $1.650,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $117.925, up $2.650,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $114.700, up $2.275,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $149.450, up $4.500

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $148.900, up $4.500

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $147.200, up $4.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are currently 42.5 cents to $1.225 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/22 was up another 87 cents to $90.17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 12 cents in the morning report, with a weighted average of $101.27. The rib was the only cut lower, down $1.24. The national base hog carcass price was 95 cents lower with a weighted average of $84.85 in the morning report. The IA/MN and WCB regions dropped sharply, down $2.77 and $2.57 respectively. Weekly FI hog slaughter was estimated at 2,144,000 head through Saturday, 35,000 fewer than the previous week and 48,000 head above last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $86.525, up $1.225,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $79.375, up $0.725

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.625, up $0.425

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 15 to 91 points in the red on Monday. Northern Texas saw 1-2” rains over the weekend. The COT report indicated managed money lowering their net long position in cotton futures and options by 23,571 contracts to a net long position of 45,344 contracts. That is the smallest net long position for the specs since July of last year. The Cotlook A index for June 23 was steady with the previous day at 82.60 cents/lb. Analysts are estimating that the planted acreage report will show a slight increase from March, at 12.278 million acres. On Monday, China sold 23,700 MT of cotton from state reserves, totaling 78.64% of the total 30,200 MT offered.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 72.5, down 15 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 68.06, down 91 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 66.72, down 30 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.730, down 29 points


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