Weekly Market Update 8/12/2021

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is a group of mosquitoes called?

2. Who is the youngest person to have hosted Saturday Night Live?​

Market News

• Play Ball! The Chicago White Sox and the New York Yankees will take to the iconic Field Of Dreams in Dyersville, Iowa at 6 p.m. tonight. Sadly, the game was postponed a year due to the pandemic. However, after a rough, year-long wait 8,000 MLB fans, along with the National Corn Growers Association, will witness history in the making. Both teams will be wearing throwback uniforms unveiled especially for thie event.  The first pitch is scheduled for 6 p.m. Central time.

• ​US Dollar Index has seen a little strength over the past week, trading up through 93.00. Stocks however, have made new highs again this past week. The Dow traded up to 35,510.77, the S & P 500 saw a high of 4,449.44 and NASDAQ traded up to 14,896.47. Stocks did take a dip Thursday morning, after trading record highs on Wednesday, as investors saw more mixed economic data and jobless claims met estimates.

• Thursday's WASDE held some corn surprises as the USDA dropped its bushel per acre estimate by almost 5 bushels per acre to 174.6. Brazil corn production also dropped to 87 million metric tonnes from 93 million metric tonnes on July's WASDE. Corn carryouts for US and World were both on the lower end of the range of estimates as stocks continue to tighten. Bean yield estimate came in at 50.0 bpa, right in line with expectations. U.S wheat production fell as well to 1.697 billion bushels from July's 1.746 billion bushels. World carryout was tighter than expected for wheat. 

Weather

The weather pattern remains a broken record, with the 6-10 day forecast holding above normal temperatures and normal chances of precipitation. After a hot week, this weekend's 80 and low 90-degree highs will feel nice, with much welcome chances for rain in the northern part of our territory Friday and Saturday. This week's drought monitor held little change, with the west and northwest in dire need of moisture with some key corn and bean producing states in the midwest needing rain as well. 

Temperature 6-10 Day	Precipitation 6-10 Day

Corn

December corn had seemed to have found some range-bound trading over the past couple weeks, with support around the 540 levels and resistance around 560 levels...well, that is until the WASDE showed up. 2021/2022 production numbers saw a drop to 14.75 billion bushels from July's estimate of 15.165 billion bushels. Yield estimates came in at 174.6 bpa. Brazil corn production was also cut. Friday's CFTC report indicated that the funds were buyers of corn this week, bringing their net long up by 18,491 contracts to 246,500 contracts. Export inspections on Monday were below market expectations at 26.3 million bushels, down significantly from the previous week at 55.0 million. Corn saw little in the way of flash sales over the week, but did see some bushels going to Mexico. Crop conditions were up 2%, coming in at 64% good-to-excellent. Big increases were seen in Illinois and Missouri, with decreases across the plains. The EIA report pegged ethanol stocks at 22,276 million barrels while production landed below 1 million barrels at 986,000 barrels per day. Thursday's export sales report for corn was higher than the trade expected at 149 million bushels, and 23.7 million bushels for new crop sales. Locally basis stays flat.

Wheat

September wheat seeing strength over the past week thanks to the August WASDE. 2021/2022 wheat production came in on the low end of estimates at 1.697 billion bushels, down from the July WASDE numbers. 2021/2022 world wheat carryout came in below the range of analyst's estimates at 279.06 million tonnes versus July's 291.68 million tonnes. Highs for September wheat seen up to 7.47 and lows in the 6.90s. Funds were net buyers this past week, adding 6,401 contracts to bring their net long to 38,166 contracts. On Monday export inspections were reported at a solid 22.3 million bushels, well ahead of the previous week at 14.9 million. Spring wheat conditions actually up 1% this week at 11% good-to-excellent, with the crop reported at 38% harvested. Winter wheat harvest is all but done at 95% harvested. Export sales on Wednesday for wheat came in at 10.8 million bushels, within expectations. New crop sales came in at nil. Locally basis stays steady. 

Soybeans

November beans had seemed to be picking up some tips from corn with a tiny bit of range-bound trading over the past week until Thursday's WASDE hit, trading back up to around 13.65+. US soybean production was cut to 4.339 billion bushels with yield falling .8 bpa to 50.0 bpa. Soybeans saw some flash sales to China and "unknown" over the course of the week, supporting the bean market. Friday showed funds were sellers, taking 15,765 contracts off to bring their net long down to 78,286 contracts. Export inspections on Monday were on the low side at 4.2 million bushels, down from the previous week at 6.8 million. Soybean conditions unchanged from last week at 60% good-to-excellent. Export sales for beans came in at 3.6 million bushels, within trade expectations. New crop sales came in at 41.2 million bushels. Locally basis stays flat. 

Milo 

Milo seeing some major basis weakening over the past week, with little in the way of large export numbers. Monday's export inspections were right in line with the 10-week average, reported at 3.0 million. Crop conditions up 1% from the previous week at 63% good-to-excellent. Export sales for milo were pegged at .3 mb with no new crop sales. Milo prices will ride the new wave of corn strength. 

Trivia Answers

1. A group of mosquitoes is called a scourge.

2. Drew Barrymore. She hosted SNL in 1982 at age 7 to promote the movie E.T.