Weekly Market Update 6/03/2021

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. In 1988, a father and his two sons discovered an amazing treasure beneath a northeast Kansas corn field. What was it?

2. Kansas has 105 counties. How many of them share a border with another state or river?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

• Short trading week this week with grains coming out of the gate strong. On Tuesday morning corn saw as much as 37-cent upside, wheat saw as much as 40-cent upside, and beans saw as much as 47-cent upside.

• Volatility continues in grains as the weather forecast brings hotter and drier attributes to key growing areas. This has allowed the market to go from trading demand to trading weather.

• After some upside in April, the US Dollar Index continues to trade 3-year lows, at around 90.50. The DJIA, on the other hand, continues to trade historical highs above 34,600~. Though NASDAQ is slightly off recent highs, trading levels continue to be strong around 13,600. 

• Kansas seeing some slight corn and bean planting delays as much needed moisture has made quite the presence. This may force some corn acres (of the just under 1 million acres left to plant) to switch to milo late in the game.

Weather

After some beneficial rains in southwest Kansas over the past few weeks, the forecast looks to be hot and dry into wheat harvest. Weather maps show above normal temps, reaching into the 90s, with below average rainfall for the 6-10 day forecast. 

Temperature 6-10 Day	Precipitation 6-10 Day

Corn

Volatility remains the name of the game after a week of up and down trade, but December corn futures are higher in this short week. Weather is the big headline, as a rainy May flipped the calendar into a hotter, drier June for key growing areas. This could put more stress on areas that missed some of the May rains. Dryness is also a concern in South America, as estimates of the Brazilian corn crop seem to be shrinking daily. The flip side of weather concerns is that the U.S. corn crop is off to a heck of a start. On Monday, USDA pegged the crop at 95% planted, up 5% from last week, and 81% emerged. Crop conditions came in higher than trade estimates, at 76% good-to-excellent. We won’t have Export Sales until tomorrow with the holiday week, but export inspections were solid at 80.7 million bushels – higher than the highest trade guess and well above last week at 68.7 million. Over half of last week’s shipments went to China, from both the Gulf and the Pacific. Expect the tug of war to continue between what could be a big U.S. crop and concerns about a shrinking Brazilian crop, paired with large Chinese demand. Locally, basis remains steady and historically high as farmers fight the mud to finish getting the crop in the ground.

Wheat

Wheat came out swinging from the long weekend on Tuesday posting highs for the week but has since fizzled out. Hot and dry forecasted weather in the Northern Plains and NW corn belt gave the market some pop to begin the week. Winter wheat got a bump in overall conditions 1% up to 48% goo to excellent. Kansas saw a 5% increase to 61% good to excellent. Export inspections came in at 9.4 million bushels shipped, in line with trade estimates. Export sales are delayed until Friday this week due to the holiday weekend. KC wheat sold off 2,599 contracts bringing their current long position to 23,501 contracts according to the CFTC report. Harvest has kicked off in Texas and will be making its way north over the next few weeks.

Soybeans

Beans have rocking and rolling this week thanks to the hot/dry forecast mentioned earlier. Chinese demand is staying strong and does not seem likely to be lowered. Crop progress showed soybeans planted at 84% nationally, up from 75% last week and ahead of the 5-year average of 67%. Kansas has been slowed by recent rains but increased to 58% just slightly behind last year’s pace of 61%. Emergence also is ahead of last year and the 5-year average increasing to 62% nationally. Export inspections were within trade estimates at 7.1 million bushels. The funds showed soybeans were sellers this week of 13,194 contracts lowering the current position to 139,390 contracts.

Milo 

Hope you’ve been hanging onto your hats, because milo has been along for this wild ride in corn futures. Basis remains flat but attractive locally. Export inspections were solid this week at 6.4 million bushels, even with last week but below the 10-week average of 7.2 million. USDA pegged the milo crop at 41% planted this week, slightly behind the five-year average of 45%. The Kansas crop is estimated to be 17% planted, but this could progress in a hurry just as soon as areas dry out enough for planters to get back rolling. There is some chatter in the country about some intended corn acres switching to milo because of delayed planting.

Trivia Answers

1. The remains of a sunken steamboat. On September 5, 1856, the steamboat Arabia hit a tree snag and sank in the Missouri River. Since then, the course of the river has changed and is now located about a half-mile from the corn field where the Arabia was rediscovered.

2. 40. Kansas has 105 counties. Forty of them share a border with another state or a river.