Weekly Market Update 11/18/2021
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Happy almost-Thanksgiving! We are so thankful for all of you and wish you and your families a very happy holiday. Our offices will be closed all day on Thanksgiving Day (Thursday 11/25) and will only be open until noon on the Friday after (11/26). There will not be a market update next week.
Stocks are mixed today, with the major indexes mixed on the week. Today's jobless claims were reported only slightly lower than the week before, and a report Wednesday indicated a surprise drop in new-home construction last month. Worries over continued inflation are also adding to investors' concerns.
Energies are mostly higher today. President Joe Biden said yesterday that the Federal Trade Commission will be digging deeper into possible illegal conduct in the oil and gas markets, claiming that anti-consumer behavior is keeping fuel prices elevated. The Biden administration has also asked some of the world's largest oil consuming nations - including China, Japan, and India - to consider releasing some of their crude reserves in a coordinated effort to lower prices and stimulate economic recovery.
|Export Sales Report|
What a wild week of weather - from 80 degrees early in the week to well below freezing last night. Temperatures are expected to stay cool, while chances for moisture remain slim. Highs are forecasted to stick around the 50s and 60s, with nighttime lows mostly in the upper 20s and low 30s.
Corn futures this week have managed to hang in there and yesterday and today saw some strength, reaching a high of 5.84, being held up by wheat and corn. Export inspections on Monday put corn at 33.7 million bushels verses 25.6 million bushels last week and the 10-week average of 25.3 million bushels. The CFTC report has corn funds still holding that massive long position at almost 320K contracts. Crop progress put corn harvest at 91% complete for the U.S. with Kansas at 95% complete. Informa estimated 2022 corn acres at 90.8 million, 2.5 million below last year. EIA report this week had ethanol stocks down 205k barrels with production up slightly. Thursday’s export sales were meh for corn at 35.6 million bushels versus 42.0 million bushels last week and the 10-week average of 34.1 million bushels. Locally basis stays steady.
It has been quite the week for wheat, seeing some range-bound trade until today. High thus far this week for December wheat was today at 8.49 ¾. Monday’s export inspections held a little more strength than expected for wheat, coming in at 14.3 million bushels versus the 10-week average of 13.7 million bushels, and last week’s 9.2 million bushels. Friday’s CFTC report was also delayed until Monday and had KC wheat managed money pegged at 57K contracts long, gaining a mere 67 contracts from the previous report. Tuesday Informa (HIS Markit) has all wheat acres estimated at 49.4 million acres, up 2.7 million from last year. Crop progress this week had winter wheat planted at 96% complete for Kansas and 94% complete for the U.S. Winter wheat that has emerged was pegged at 81% for the U.S. with Kansas at 86%, but southwest Kansas is seeing many fields failing to emerge. Conditions were pegged at 46% good to excellent for the US with Kansas at 64% good to excellent. Export sales report this morning had wheat pegged at 14.7 million bushels versus the 10-week average of 14.2 and last week’s number of 10.5 million bushels. World wheat values continue to run higher. Locally, basis stays steady.
Beans have seen some good rallies this week as China sales pump the market, trying to fulfill trade obligations. WoW beans were able to gain 22 cents, while the week’s high thus far is 12.89 ¼. Monday’s export inspections held beans at 76.2 million bushels versus 106.9 million bushels last week, but still above the 10-week average of 52.1 million bushels. Crop progress has soybean harvest at 92% complete for the U.S. while Kansas sits at 85% complete. The delayed CFTC report pegged soybean managed money at a mere 12K contracts long. Beans did see some flash sales early this week and export sales report this morning at 50.8 million bushels versus last week at 44.8 million bushels and the 10-week average at 50.2 million bushels. Biggest surprise this week was a soy oil sale to India as interest and demand in oil starts to show. Locally basis stays flat.
Milo following corn futures lead this week. Export inspections were not pretty for milo, coming in at .3 million bushels for the second week in a row. Monday’s crop progress report showed milo 89% harvested for the U.S. with Kansas slightly behind the U.S. average at 83% harvested. Export sales had milo pegged at 12.7 million bushels, the largest sale in the last 10 weeks. Locally basis is flat.
Harry S. Truman (1947)