Weekly Market Update 9/16/2021
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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According to Yahoo! News, "Wall Street declined on Thursday even after a stronger-than-expected report on retail sales suggested consumer spending held up despite concerns over the Delta variant, and as jobless claims held near a pandemic-era low." There was an unexpected rise in spending in August in spite of the latest coronavirus wave, traders found. A surprising 0.7% rise was found in the Commerce Department's August retail sales report after a 1.8% decline in July. New unemployment claims posted a gain of 332,000.
Just days after Nicholas made landfall, 2 additional storms could be a threat by early next week with one looking to track through the Atlantic's "Hurricane Alley." The gulf coast is has been pummled with moisture as cities along I-10 saw up to almost 8 inches of rainfall after Galveston accumulated just shy of 14 inches.
Export sales this morning left quite a bit to be desired. Corn in at 9.7 million bushels, beans in at 46.5 million bushels and wheat in at 22.7 million bushels. The only somewhat-surprise was milo, in at 8.1 million bushels, blowing the last 10 weeks of milo sales out of the water.
Hot and dry is the continued theme for southwest Kansas as temps heading into fall will hit the high 90's and low 100's. Look for a little cooler weather starting Tuesday as fall officially hits, though still warm and dry for the time of year. Little to no chance of much-needed precipitation.
Temperature 6-10 Day
Precipitation 6-10 Day
Corn is taking a breather today after a two-day run up of about 20 cents. This morning’s export sales report was less than lackluster for corn, with old crop sales reported at 9.7 million bushels and new crop sales 0.1 million bushels. Export inspections also incredibly low this week at 5.4 million bushels, to be somewhat expected after the damage Hurricane Ida did to the ports. Further issues from potential flash flooding in the gulf because of slow-moving storm Nicholas will be something to keep an eye on as we head into a busy shipping season. The September WASDE report came out on Friday, with corn yields increased to 176.3 bpa and acreage up to 93.3 million acres. This pushed production to 14.996 billion bushels, up from the August estimate of 14.750 billion bushels. Both U.S. and global carryout for 2021/22 saw healthy increases. EIA data this week reported increased ethanol production, with lower ethanol stocks. USDA reported Monday that the U.S. corn crop is 4% harvested, while crop conditions slipped 1% to 58% good-to-excellent.
We have seen a solid turnaround in the wheat complex this week. Worldwide issues concerning wheat and worldwide prices rising this week have help prices approach highs for the month of September. This morning we saw funds sell off and take profits dragging the market down and fighting to stay in the green. Export inspections were strong this week for wheat shipping 20.1 million bushels, above trade estimates. No surprises with export sales this week, 22.7 million bushels sold with HRW leading the way with 16.5 million bushels sold. CFTC report from last Friday showed the funds as sellers of 6,470 contracts lowering the long to 41,235 contracts. Wheat is seeing more upside now with the strong close in Paris wheat yesterday and additional bullish fundamentals developing in the EU markets.
Soybeans have been a mixed bag at best this week. We are seeing some pressure today with a less than stellar export sales report this morning along with some cancellations. China reportedly bought four to six cargoes of Brazilian soybeans earlier this week for Oct-Nov delivery, an uncommon time for the purchases but likely due to the export issues in the Gulf. The market is trying to sort this information as well. Export inspections showed 3.9 million bushels shipped, no surprise due to the Gulf issues mentioned previously. Export sales were solid for last week at 46.5 million bushels sold. Funds were sellers from Friday’s report of 11,625 contracts reducing the long to 57,516 contracts. Crop conditions this week were steady at 57% good to excellent. U.S. harvest is in a delay due to most mature crop under heavy moisture still.
Milo tagging along for today’s breather in corn in corn futures, while locally basis remains steady. This morning’s Export Sales report was super solid for milo, with 8.1 million sold. Most exciting is that China bought a big chunk of what was sold this week. Export inspections even with the previous week at 0.2 million bushels. The September WASDE increased planted acres to 7.3 million, with yield seeing a slight decrease to 69.7 bpa.
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