Weekly Market Update 4/27/2023

Apr 27, 2023












Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. How many planets in our solar system are larger than Earth?

  2. Who was the first American to win a Nobel Peace Prize? Hint: He was a U.S. president.

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

Commodity markets are plummeting this week as funds continue to liquidate and take a risk-off approach. Money flow has crushed any bullish narratives fueled largely by outside market headlines, including ongoing issues in the banking industry.

Export Inspections: Export inspections gave bulls no good news or strength to think about a rally. Corn came in at 36 million bushels shipped with Mexico and Japan the top 2 destinations. USDA seasonal pace made no improvement week to week. Soybeans were a snoozer with 13.8 million bushels shipped, China took the lion’s share this week. Wheat was middle of the pack for estimations and saw 13.4 million bushels shipped, HRW and HRS tied at 4.8 million bushels each as the top varieties. China was the top destination for milo and took all 2.1 million bushels shipped. Export Sales: Sales barely lifted their head off the pillow this morning and were dreadful. Corn reported 15.7 million bushels sold with no new crop sales. Japan and Mexico were the top buyers. Another slap in the face that isn’t helping futures was another Chinese cancellation of corn. Soybeans sold 11.4 million bushels, Mexico and Japan were once again the top buyers. Wheat sold 5.7 million bushels of old crop to go along with 7.4 million bushels of new crop. White wheat was the top variety for the week. No milo sales from this week’s report.

Fears are sparked again for the U.S. banking sector. First Republic Bank shares nosedived after investors sold off in light of financial disclosures earlier in the week.After releasing their earnings report for the first three months of 2023, the California-based lender said it lost 40% of its deposits in March as customers moved millions of dollars elsewhere. At one point during the trading day shares dropped below $5. Just six months ago, First Republic shares were trading at nearly $150.

Stocks are higher today. Stocks finished Thursday higher as strong results from Meta Platforms boosted tech-related names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 524.29 points, or 1.57%, to close at 33,826.16. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.43% to finish at 12,142.24, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.96% to end at 4,135.35. It was the best day since January for the Dow and S&P 500 and since March for the Nasdaq. This is despite weaker-than-expected GDP data out today. The U.S. economy grew 1.1% in the first quarter, while economists forecasted growth of 2%. The report also showed stronger-than-expected inflation, with prices increasing 4.2% compared with a consensus estimate of 3.7%.

Crop progress report has corn planting slightly ahead of historic pace, while wheat conditions continue to slip. On Monday, USDA pegged the corn crop at 14% planted, up from the 5-year average of 11%. KAnsas is reported at 24% planted. While it's a little on the cool side, overall weather for the corn belt remains favorable for planting. The U.S. soybean crop is reported at 9% planted, up from 4% last week and a 4% 5-year average. Milo is slightly behind pace, with the U.S crop reported at 18% planted versus a 5-year average of 20%. Winter wheat conditions fell by another 1% week-on-week, reported at 26% good-to-excellent. Kansas remained steady at 14% good-to-excellent. 

Weather

Significant rainfall this week with 1 -2 inches reported in most areas of southwest Kansas.  Great way to end April and we can only hope the weather keeps bringing the moisture we need in the months ahead.  This week we have highs in the 60s & upper 70s with lows getting down in the 30 & 40s. There’s potential for some rain Friday in the early morning from 12:00am to 9:00am, with winds picking up to 10-25 mph. Temperatures are expected to start warming up at the beginning of the week.

Trivia Answers

  1. Four: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.

  2. Theodore Roosevelt (1906), for negotiating peace in the Russo-Japanese War through the Treaty of Portsmouth.