Weekly Market Update 8-11-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Corn: Overall nothing earth shattering for changes in corn. The current year carryout saw an increase to 1.457 billion bushels, the main changes were imports up 10 million bushels and exports down 25 million bushels. We saw a yield cut for the upcoming harvest down to 175.1 bushels per acre. Demand was the main change for the 23/24 balance sheet. Exports saw 50 million bushels gone, feed usage down 15 million bushels. Demand getting taken to the woodshed has put a negative tone for this report. Milo: Milo saw yield clipped to 66.2 bushels per acres that took off 18 million bushels from production. Feed usage saw the ax the same as corn with 15 million bushels trimmed. This gives us the 3 million bushels that were cut from the carryout number. Soybeans: Carryout for 22/23 saw an increase of 10 million bushels which was from imports being raised by that amount. Soybeans saw their yield cut more than the trade expected dropping to 50.9 bushels per acre. Some of the yield cut was offset by exports cutting 25 million bushels. The tone for soybeans in this report was neutral. Wheat: News in wheat for this month’s WASDE was 23/24 harvested acres were raised slightly to 37.9 million acres and yield lowered by .3 to 45.8 bushels per acre. That leaves a 5-million-bushel loss in wheat for supply. As with all the others, demand cuts were seen in wheat too. Food by 5 million and exports by 25 million. Demand will continue to be a story for all grains, if exports don’t see an uptick any time soon markets could be in for a hurting.
Exports Export sales pretty strong for beans and wheat, while corn remains steady. Old crop corn was a pathetic 5.9 million bushels but new crop had another good week at 29.9 million bushels. Beans had a healthy 14.9 million bushels of old crop and 40.3 million bushels of new crop. Wheat also seeing better export demand with the move lower in prices, reported above estimates at 20.9 million bushels. On the other hand, export inspections were pretty slow. Corn was okay at best, coming in on the low side of estimates at 14.8 million bushels shipped. Soybeans were also on the lower side at 10.4 million, while wheat was below estimates at 10.1 million bushels.
Crop Progress Report Better forecasts and weekend rainfall had crop conditions coming in better than the trade expected. This week corn was rated 57% good/excellent, a 2% improvement week-on-week, compared to a 64% good/excellent 5-year average. Areas still below 50% g/e include Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan. The corn crop is reported to be 93% silking and 47% in the dough stage. Soybeans saw a 2% increase from last week at 54% good/excellent. U.S. soybeans are estimated to be 90% blooming and 66% setting pods. The U.S. milo crop jumped 2% to 57% g/e, which is slightly above the 5-year average of 55% g/e. States on the decline include Kansas, down 11% to 53% g/e and Oklahoma with a 15% hit down to 55% g/e. Spring wheat was rated at 41% g/e, falling 1% from last week.
With weather forecasts on the forefront of the markets mind this week, we have seen much needed rains and favorable cooler temperatures throughout a good portion of the Corn Belt except the Dakotas. Rainfall estimates have ranged from 0.5-2” in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The Northern Plains are expecting below normal precipitation in the next two weeks. The southwest Kansas area is seeing cooler temperatures as well with highs in the 80s and 90s, with a good chances of rain this weekend. Saturday has a 60% chance for PM thunderstorms. Heading into next week we should see similar temps in the high 80s, no precipitation forecasted with 10-15 MPH winds.