Weekly Market Update 8-24-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Pro Farmer Crop Tour is close to wrapping up with two groups covering 7 states with yield estimates. This week’s extreme heat across the majority of the growing areas, in particular Iowa & Illinois, has heat stress taking a toll with temps topping 100 degrees and decreasing yields up to 30 bu per acre. Illinois corn yield estimate was 193.72 bu per acre and pod count 3x3 average 1,270.61. Iowa corn yield estimate came in at 183.81b u per acre with pod counts 3x3 average 1,174.43. Soybeans are not taking the hit compared to corn estimates, with the beginning of the month starting cooler and wetter. Soybeans are getting the August rains that often translate into good yields. Indiana corn estimate was 180.89 bu per acre and soybean pod count in a 3x3 square averaged 1,309.96. Nebraska corn is estimated to be 167.22 bu per acre. Pod counts in a 3x3 square averaged 1,160.02. South Dakota corn is estimated to be 157.42 Bu per acre. Pod counts in a 3x3 square averaged 1,013. Ohio corn yield potential came in at 183.94 bu per acre with pod counts averaging 1,252.93. Minnesota corn yields 190.39 bu per acre with pod counts in a 3x3 square averaging 1,100.75.
Crop Progress Report: Corn crop condition dropped 1 percentage point this week to 58% good to excellent just below the 5-year average of 61% good to excellent. Kansas saw a bigger dip with a 5% drop to 41% good to excellent. For perspective purposes, last year at this time Kansas was 26% good to excellent. It will be interesting to see how the next couple weeks fair with the heat dome baking the Midwest. Soybeans were flat for the week with no change at 59% good to excellent. Kansas wasn’t so lucky with a drop of 6% to 40% good to excellent. The Kansas soybean crop is still ahead of last year’s pace of 31% good to excellent. Milo saw a 3 point drop to 51% good to excellent, overall the milo crop is in line with the 5-year average of 52% g/e.
Export sales have a similar story to previous weeks with mediocre old crop sales but solid new crop sales. Old crop corn sales this past week saw a net cancellation of 900k bu, leaving us 30 mil bu shy of hitting the USDA estimate. Soybeans improved this week with 13.4 mil bu sold. New crop had decent sales for corn and beans, with corn at 26.5 mil bu sold and soybeans at 44.8 mil bu. Milo saw new crop sales at 7.2 mil bu, but old crop had a net cancellations of 2.7 million bu.
Hot and dry has been the name of the game this week, with daytime highs exceeding 100 degrees. A cool off is on the way this weekend and early next week though, highs should be in the 80s with some scattered chances for rain in parts of our draw area this weekend. Hot and dry weather has also been persistent across much of the Corn Belt this week, but like us they should have a break in temperatures next week. Dryness looks to continue across the Belt as we close out the month of August.
Number One Observatory Circle - on the grounds of the U.S. Naval Observatory