Weekly Market Update 2/2/23

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Happy Groundhog Day! What is the official name of the groundhog that looks for his shadow on this day every year?

2. What famous comedian starred in the 1993 film Groundhog Day?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

• Soybeans are leading the market higher this week, as dryness in Argentina continues to support that market. March Kansas City wheat also posted a one month high during the overnight session at 8.9275, mostly recovering from lows but also noting Ukraine's continued absence from the world wheat market. 

• Export sales this morning were positive, exceeding the trade estimates with Corn reporting 62.7 million bushels which is significantly more than the week prior.  However, soybeans are a different story not meeting expectations with 27.0 million for the current week.  Milo coming in at 4.4 million and wheat reporting 5 million bushels. Corn, wheat, and milo still behind pace needed to hit USDA export sale estimates.

• Export inspections were a little weaker this week with the exception of soybeans, Currently corn is 20.8 million bushels just right under trade estimates with majority exported to Mexico.  Soybeans ended up near the top of estimated bushels shipped at 68.2 million bushels with the vast majority shipped to China, 16.4 million bushels of wheat shipped, and 0.0 bushels reported for milo.

• ​Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the decision to raise the target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point as expected. In addition, ongoing increases were also promised in the effort to curb inflation. The U.S. dollar did react by moving lower with the U.S. dollar index falling to a nine-month low. This weakness makes dollar-priced oil less expensive for other currencies.

• Pretty neat graphic below over land use in Brazil and something to monitor in the future in regards to the corn and bean markets. Brazil has a total of 2.1 million acres, ag usage acres total only 7% of that with 148.3 million acres. Pasture acres accounts for 490 million acres. It’s not hard to see more pasture acres being converted to agricultural use sooner rather than later.
   

Weather

This week in southwest KS we will have reasonable temps with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s, sure beats those single digit lows. Next week there is a chance for some moisture with above normal precipitation probability at the end of the week with 30-40 % chances of showers/snow showers. Expect 15-20 mph winds throughout the week.

Trivia Answers

1. Punxsutawney Phil

2. Bill Murray