Weekly Market Update 6-9-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Export Sales and Inspections continue to disappoint. This morning's export sales number fed corn bears, with old crop sales reported at only 6.8 million bushels and new crop reporting a net cancellation of 4.2 million bushels. It is abnormal to see new crop cancellations at this point in the year. Soybeans sales were reported at 7.6 million bushels of old crop and 9.7 million bushels of new crop. This is down 60% from last year at this time. All wheat sales were reported at 8.6 million bushels. Inspections were also largely disappointing. Corn was reported with 46.5 million bushels shipped. While it’s more than the 10-week average, it’s 6.5 Mil Bu less than last week and well under the 5-year average. Beans were on the low side of estimates at 7.9 million bushels shipped, but are still the only commodity on pace right now to hit the current USDA target for inspections. Wheat was reported at 10.7 million bushels shipped, with HRW reported at 3.4 million.
Crop Progress Report Corn planting continues at a fast pace, with the crop reported at 96% planted on Monday. That's 5% ahead of the 5ive-year average and a 4% jump from last week. The corn crop is currently rated at 64% good-to-excellent, with some Corn Belt states lagging behind their average due to recent dryness. The U.S. soybean crop is 91% planted, well ahead of the five-year average of 76% for this point in the year. Like corn, soybean conditions across the Corn Belt are behind average. The crop is rated 62% good-to-excellent, compared with a 71% average. The U.S. milo crop is estimated at 49% planted, slightly behind the 53% five-year average. Wheat harvest has been rolling in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, with USDA esimating the winter wheat crop at 4% harvested. Conditions were up 2% on the week, to 36% good-to-excellent.
Forecasts are front and center. With weather models changing seemingly by the minute, the trade has been clostly watching forecasts in the Corn Belt due to recent dryness. Some in the trade are drawing comparisons from this year to 2012, while bears argue that it is too early in the season for weather to have a dramatic impact on yield. Rains are forecasted across the driest parts of the Corn Belt over the weekend, so expect fireworks on Monday if those don't materialize. This week's drought monitor showed expanding moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions across the Midwest, especially along and east of the Mississippi River and central Minnesota.
Nothing earth shattering for the June WASDE report. Little changes across the board, but nothing the trade wasn’t expecting. It is business as usual for the remainder of this week. All attention reverted back to the weather and the stock/acres report at the end of this month. Corn: Little change for the U.S. balance sheet. Imports were lowered 15 million and exports lowered 50 million bushels increases total carryout to 1.452 million bushels. These numbers were to be expected. Soybeans: Beans saw about the same story as corn with exports lowered 15 million bushels raising carryout to 230 million bushels. Wheat: Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but little change from wheat carryout as well. Wheat saw a yield bump that increased production by 6 million bushels and thus that is the only change we see with carryout coming in at 562 million bushels. Milo: Milo has a short and sweet story, no change this go round.
Here in the Southwest today the high will be a warm 89 degrees. Heading into the weekend and the upcoming week, temperatures will be in the upper 80s, with warmer temps really setting in for summer. Lows will be in the 60s. Chances of rain will most likely be on Monday with PM Thunderstorms and overnight into Tuesday morning with accumulation of moisture ½ inch or better – that is a 15-30% chance. Both the temperature and precipitation outlook are near normal for this time of year.