Weekly Market Update 11-9-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
What Big XII football team has the most 40-point shutout wins?
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Answers at the bottom.
Black Sea Update Wheat futures were up sharply yesterday after news broke that a Russian missile damaged a Liberian civilian vessel entering a Black Sea port in the Odesa region. The attack killed one person and injured four. The vessel has been known to carry commodities and was supposed to transport iron ore to China. After their recent pull out of the U.N.-brokered Grain Corridor, Russia has been repeatedly attacking Ukrainian port infrastructure – Ukraine Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov alleged that Russia has carried out 21 target attacks since their withdrawal. The attack provided a little steam to what has been a mostly lackluster wheat market, pushing December KC wheat futures to close up 22 cents/bushel yesterday. While some strength was found in the overnight session, wheat has failed to find further support today.
WASDE Recap: The biggest number change with the November WASDE looks to be the increase in corn production to 15.234 billion bushels. The major reason for the change is the increase in yield from 173bpa in October to 174.9bpa. We saw U.S. carry out increase for corn, soybeans, and wheat. With some traders thinking this would be a more neutral report before thing get potentially hectic in January. Worldwide carryout saw both corn and wheat increase. Soybeans took a hit and were 1.11mmt lower. With the increase in carryout and the U.S. looking at a bigger corn and soybean crop has made for a negative effect on the markets today.
Export Inspections/Sales: This week's export sales stated that the trend for Mexico to buy U.S. corn is brought on by unfavorable growing conditions and an increased demand for corn. There were also soybeans sold to China in flash sales. However, the export inspections for corn showed mediocre amounts, with 21.1 million bushels inspected to ship. This is slightly better than last year but still well behind the 5-year average. On the other hand, 76.6 million bushels of beans were inspected to ship, up 1.3 million bushels from last week and still ahead of the seasonal pace. Milo had 1.6 million inspected to shipped, which trails the 5-year average for this point in time. Wheat remains minimal at 2.6 million bushels shipped. Export sales today is decent across the board. This morning, export sales for corn came in on the higher end of the trade estimates. 40 million bushels sold for the marketing year also had 5.5 million new crop sales. The primary destination was Mexico. Soybean sales are all midrange of estimates. 39.7 million bushels with no new crop sales to China, wheat 13.0 million bushels sold, and 5.5 million bushels of milo. Neither of these had any new crop sales.
Temperatures are expected to remain steady in the next week, with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows mostly in the 30s. Very little in terms of precipitation forecasted in the next week, but there are some chances in the extended forecast for moisture next weekend. In other weather news, Argentina is expected to get some drought relief via decent rains through Sunday before a drier 6-10 day period; Brazil saw scattered action center-south but rains are seen picking up there over the next week to ten days, with dryness expanding in the north. Brazil's top state of Mato Grosso continues to battle unseasonably hot and dry weather.
Tony Dorsett (Pitt '73-'76)