Weekly Market Update 10-12-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Market NewsOctober WASDE: The USDA reached into their old back of tricks and went back and revised several numbers from last year’s crop. Corn saw 22/23 production lowered 15 million bushels with feed demand and exports getting changed as well. All-in-all we saw a net effect being a 91-million-bushel reduction for 22/23 and lowered our current carry out. We saw a cut to productions with a slightly smaller yield too at 173 bushels per acre. Overall, we saw current carryout cut by 110 million bushels to 2.111 billion. Throw in the U.S. tighter carryout with the world stocks tightening up to 312.40mmt and this was enough to fuel bulls. Nothing overly bullish from the U.S. carryout numbers. The USDA saw an 8 million bushel increase to current carryout from changes to last year’s numbers. Bulls got their yield reduction of .50bpa to 49.6. After all the changes with U.S. carryout of last year and yield amongst other changes we are left with current carryout unchanged at 220 million bushels. The world balance sheet is where the action took place. We saw a reduction of 3mmt in world stocks, mainly China and Brazil.
Export inspections this week are looking for improved weather conditions to alleviate issues with the river and increase export demand. This week, 21.7 million bushels of corn were inspected, with Mexico being the most popular destination. This is lower than last week's 26.4 million bushels. However, the USDA reported that soybean inspections have increased to 60.4 million bushels this week, compared to 24.9 million bushels last week. The bulk of these were shipped to China, which is the necessary pace needed to meet the USDA's total. Wheat inspections were in the estimated area at 14.5 million bushels this week, and milo inspections are also above pace, reporting 2.2 million bushels. Export sales report won't be released until tomorrow due to the holiday on Monday.
Crop/Harvest Progress The crop progress report indicates that dry weather conditions throughout the country have enabled farmers to harvest their crops quickly. Kansas saw a 13% increase this week, with 64% harvested. However, there are chances of rain, which may slow the nationwide harvesting pace. Currently, corn harvest is ahead of schedule, with 34% already harvested and 31% on average nationally. Similarly, soybeans are also ahead of schedule, with 43% harvested compared to the average of 37%. Milo is above average at 44% harvested compared to 42% last week. Corn condition was unchanged at 53% good to excellent, and soybean declined to 51% good to excellent compared to 52% the previous week. Wheat planted nationally is 57%, right in line with the average.
South American Weather The market continues to keep an eye on South American weather, with Argentina in their third year of drought while some parts of southern Brazil have seen too much rain. Argentina does have rain chances for rain in the coming days, but they are currently forecasted to miss major growing regions in the south. Argentina farmers are planting corn, but have been going at a slower pace due to dryness. Brazil saw heavy rains in the south but looks to have some coverage filling in drier areas over the weekend, splitting into a wet south/dry north pattern next week. Farmers in Brazil are currently planting at a near record pace.
This week's warmer temperatures give way to cooler temperatures starting tomorrow, with highs for the next few days in the 50s and 60s. Right now, next Wednesday does hold a chance for precipitation. Starting tonight and into tomorrow, much of our draw area is under high wind and red flag warnings with some places expected to have wind gusts up to 55 mph.