Weekly Market Update 10-19-23
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
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Crop Progress: In Monday's report, USDA reported the US corn crop at 45% harvested, up 11% from last week and slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace. Soybeans are reported at 62% harvested, which is well ahead of their average pace of 52%. The Corn Belt is expected to have favorable harvest conditions over the weekend, but does have chances for rain next week. Weather maps are wetter than normal in the 6-10day period. The US milo crop is reported at 53% harvested, up 9% from last week and slightly ahead of normal. Winter wheat planting advanced to 68%, with favorable planting conditions, but most HRW areas are looking for the next rain. Extended forecasts show warm temperatures, but widespread rain chances from the Plains in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.
September NOPA Crush: September 2023 crush came in at 165.5 million bushels, up from the average 161.7-million-bushel trade estimate, 161.5 million bushels last month and 158.1 million bushels last year. This was also easily a record number for September. 23/24 crush season is off to a good start with the USDA estimating around a 4% year-over-year total crush increase. With strong crush numbers and bullish bean oil stocks figures to provide a nice boost post-report release.
Export Inspections Weekly grain inspections showed soybeans had 73.9 million bushels inspected for the week, bringing the total to 198.6 million bushels for the 23/24 marketing year. China took the lump sum of 50.1 million bushels. US wheat exports totaled 13.0 million bushels. For the week, 5.6 million bushels were shipped to Japan. USDA currently estimates 700 million bushels of wheat to be exported during the marketing year. Corn exports showed 17.1 million bushels inspected for the current week. The top destinations were Mexico, Columbia, and Japan. So far, the US has inspected 154.8 million bushels with 46 weeks left in the marketing year. Milo shipped 3.0 million bushels headed to China for its destination.
Export Sales Export sales of corn reached 34.7 million bushels, which is above our 10-week average. Additionally, the U.S. sold 400,000 bushels of new crop corn. According to the latest report, soybeans sold a reasonable amount of 50.4 million bushels. However, corn and soybeans are behind the USDA's targeted pace despite regular business. A figure of 2.4 million bushels of milo have been sold this current week, but neither soybeans nor milo have made any new crop sales. Wheat has sold 23.2 million bushels, with 1.1 million bushels being new crop sales.
It's been a week of extreme temperature swings, with some places in our area experiencing freezing conditions over the weekend to reaching temperatures in the high 80s during the week. The next week looks like more of the same, with highs mostly in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s. There are some decent chances for moisture a couple of days next week across most of our territory.