Weekly Market Update 1-12-24

Jan 12, 2024


Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. In 2009, what became the first Morse code character to be added since WWII?

  2. Who is the most recent person to achieve EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) status?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

USDA Data Dump: Bears were smelling blood going into all the reports and they went for the kill shot at 11 o’clock today. We will start with corn that had a shocking bushel per acre increase by 2.4bpa to 177.3bpa, this was more than enough to offset the 600k harvested acres cut. We saw a net increase of 108 million bushels to production for 2023, leading to a 31 million bushel increase for corn carryout knocking corn through previous lows and continuing the trend of lower futures. Similar story with milo to corn, acres down 20k and yield up .6bpa. Rinse and repeat with soybean acres lowered 40k and a .7bpa increase. Demand still remains the story with beans, and little changed there with 3 million bushel decrease in seed & residual usage. All of this results in a 35 million bushel increase in carryout. Nothing noteworthy worldwide for soybeans with South America see a 2mmt hit but this is offset by the increase in the U.S. carryout. Corn and soybean futures do seem to be overdone and we could see a possible bounce back going into next week but let’s not hold our breath for much relief. Wheat saw acres decrease in crucial states particularly HRW states. Overall, with the acres cut from the wheat carryout decreased 11 million bushels to 648 million bushels overall. Front end months of KC Wheat closed in the green, but the backend months were so fortunate. Wheat was the winner futures wise on this eventful data day.  

Export Sales: Thursday’s export sales data for the corn market was not as expected and was towards the lower end of trade estimates, with only 19.2 million bushels sold. Due to the holidays, weaker sales are expected during this time. A stronger sales report would have been helpful for the corn market. This week, interest came from Colombia, Japan, and Mexico. Export sales for wheat fell short of estimates and were reported at 4.7 million bushels. The China loadings hit the report but came out of unknown purchases. Egypt was the second biggest purchaser, and then buying dropped off fast. Cash markets do not provide much guidance for flat prices in either direction. Soybean export sales were disappointing, and there were no estimated numbers across the board, making this shaky territory to build on for a rally. Only 10.3 million bushels were reported, with no new crop contracts. Bushels for milo pegged at 5.3 million bushels sold.

Export Inspections saw 33.7 million bushels of corn shipped this week, which aligns with trade estimates. This is better than the previous week and better than the same time last year. However, corn is still falling behind the current USDA pace, and with the export demand obstacles ahead, this hasn't helped the markets. Soybeans shipped 24.8 million bushels, slightly below estimates, while Wheat did well by sending 18 million bushels to the Philippines and Mexico. Additionally, milo was well above pace, with 4.7 million bushels inspected.

Weather

What a crazy week in weather we've had and it only looks to continue! After blizzard conditions early this week that brought dangerously high winds and whiteout conditions, we are now headed towards a weekend of frigid temperatures. Wind chill warnings are in effect starting tonight and all the way into Tuesday, with highs on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday all in the single digits. Some snow is also expected Sunday and Monday. These types of temperatures can be extremely dangerous very quickly - please be weather aware and stay hunkered down if possible.

Trivia Answers

  1. The "@" symbol

  2. Viola Davis