Weekly Market Update 6-6-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What year did the Civil War end?

2. What athlete has won the most Olympic medals?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: This week, 15.3 million bushels of wheat were inspected, slightly higher than trade estimates. HRW had a good week with shipments to Mexico by rail and to Asian destinations via the Pacific Northwest PNW. HRS wheat was in demand by the Philippines from the PNW, with additional rail shipments to Mexico. Soft Red Winter wheat was shipped to Colombia from the Gulf, while White Wheat had regular shipments to Asian destinations, but no shipments of durum wheat were reported. Corn shipped 54.1 million bushels, which is also better than estimates. Mexico, Japan & Columbia are the destinations. However, it is still lagging in the pace required by the USDA. Soybeans met in the middle of estimates, with 12.8 million inspected & milo inspecting 2.7 million bushels. China is the only destination.

Export Sales: This week's corn sales are in the middle of the road, with Mexico leading the pack and Japan and Spain providing backup support. The sales remain well above the historical seasonal at 46.5 million bushels O/C And 4.5 million booked for N/C. Wheat is finally finding more friends, with NC booking 22.7 million bushels. Demand in HRW is coming from unknown sources, but HRS is seeing more OC/NC silliness wheat sold. Soybeans have seen better days, with 7.0 million bushels sold and 2.7 million for N/C. Milo has no N/C sales, with 2.2 million bushels sold this week and at the pace needed.

Global Supplies Fall: According to reports, China Sinograin will increase its wheat purchases from domestic producers. Considering recent weather-related damage to production, China is looking to secure its supply. Russia has been hit with frost damage, and excessive dryness & rains have affected yields in the European Union, sparking concerns about lower global supplies in the second half of 2024, a critical production and marketing period. Wheat buyers in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, which account for two-thirds of the global wheat imports, have been caught up with relatively little supply after the weather disruptions that unexpectedly sent prices surging in April. China’s state-owned agricultural stockpiler Sinograin said on Wednesday it and its affiliated units will increase purchases of wheat produced in 2024 from significant regions for its reserves. It said it had already started buying in some areas.

CROP PROGRESS: Rain events across the Corn Belt have the crop off to a good start. USDA rated the US corn crop at 75% good-to-excellent on Monday, well ahead of the 71% 5-year average and several points ahead of what traders were expecting. The crop is all but in, estimated at 91% planted. There are still some acres in Illinois and the eastern Corn Belt still yet to go that are worth watching in the days to come. Soybeans are estimated to be 78% planted, 5% ahead of normal. There really isn’t any concern with the rest of the crop going in at this point. Winter wheat ratings have also been supported by recent rain events – the crop is rated 49% good-to-excellent, up one percent from last week and 3% ahead of the 5-year average. Kansas saw a 2% improvement to 34% good-to-excellent.
 
Russia: Russia’s Socevon agricultural consultancy cut their 2024 wheat crop forecast to 80.7 MMT on Wednesday, below their most recent estimate of 82.1 MMT and down sharply from their March estimate of 94 MMT. Sovecon cited deteriorating crop conditions and reduced yield potential following hot and dry weather following bitter May frosts. Russian officials have also hinted that they may declare a nationwide emergency by the end of the week due to frost damage, allowing farmers to proceed with insurance claims. Russian concerns have certainly boosted the market in the last month, but it seems like the market may be becoming numb to these headlines.



Weather: It’s looking sunny with a high near 85°F today and winds coming out of the east/northeast at 11 to 17 mph. Through the night, you can expect a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with increasing cloud cover and a low around 61°F. Friday looks like a 20% chance of precipitation expected early in the day/afternoon, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms expected later in the evening. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s during the day, with temperatures dipping into the low 60s overnight. This weekend is predicted to be wet, with a 20% chance of rain and thunderstorms anticipated on Saturday, with the chances increasing to 60% overnight. New rainfall amounts are estimated between a tenth and quarter of an inch, with the potential for more in the event of a thunderstorm. Sunday is again looking at a 20% chance of precipitation between 7am and 1 pm, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Temperatures this weekend are expected to be in the high 70s to 80s, with lows in the high 50s overnight. We can again expect to see a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday throughout the day, with high temperatures near 80°F and low temperatures anticipated around 56°F. The remainder of the week looks dry with sunny days Tuesday and Wednesday, again with temperatures expected in the high 80s/low 90s.  
 

Trivia Answers

1. 1865
2. Michael Phelps (with 28 medals)