Weekly Market Update 8/14/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  What is the name of the largest moon of Jupiter? 

2. What is the chemical symbol for the element mercury? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

 CROP PROGRESS: As fall harvest approaches, soybean and corn conditions have both decreased their good to excellent ratings since last week. Corn has dropped to 72% while soybeans have dropped to 68%. Milo has stayed steady at 66% good to excellent ratings. Kansas soybeans rank higher than the national average at 69% good to excellent while corn and milo are below state averages at 61% and 64%, respectively.
 
INFLATION REPORT: The headline PPI inflation saw its largest year-on-year increase since February, driven by factors including tariff impacts and rising trade services margins, posting 2 % gains. The service sector contributed significantly, with a 1.1% increase marking the highest gain since March 2022. In particular, machinery and equipment wholesaling rose 3.8%, accounting for 30% of service sector gains, while portfolio management fees and airline passenger services also increased. Following this data release, there was a slight decrease in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, but the focus will now shift to the upcoming PCE data and August jobs numbers, which could influence future rate decisions.

 EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn inspections reached 58.7 million bushels, surpassing estimates. The main destinations for these exports included Mexico, Colombia, and Taiwan. Wheat shipments totaled 13.4 million bushels, while soybean exports amounted to 19 million bushels, primarily directed to Mexico. Milo exports rose to 2.7 million bushels. Corn sales for the 2024/2025 marketing year fell below trade estimates; there were 80.6 million bushels sold for NC sales. The soybean complex also underperformed estimates; however, it locked in 41.6 million bushels sold for NC contracts. Wheat sales for the current year reached 26.6 million bushels, with no NC contracts, while milo sales were at 2.5 million bushels for the current trade, also without NC contracts.

WASDE RECAP: Earlier this week, the USDA released its updated world supply and demand estimates, leaving the corn/milo markets feeling the pressure as record crops loom on the horizon.  

CORN: Planted corn acreage for ‘25/’26 was raised from 95.2 million acres to 97.3 million acres, a 2.1 million acre increase; followed by a consequential increase in harvested acres. Corn yield predictions for ‘25/’26 were increased by 6 bushels per acre (bpa) to 188 bpa – all factors combined pushing total year production estimates up 1 billion bushels from July to August. The USDA raised feed usage by 250 million bushels to a record 6.1 billion bushels, increased exports by 200 million bushels to 2.875 billion bushels, and increased FSI/ethanol by 95 million bushels to 6.98 billion bushels. That all being said, carryout for ‘25/’26 was increased by 457 million bushels to 2.117 billion bushels.

SOYBEANS: While corn took much of the heat from this WASDE report, soybeans subsequently saw some movement in the opposite direction of corn. With the increase in planted corn acreage, soybean acreage was decreased by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres; decreasing July harvest acreage predictions by 2.6 million acres to 80.1 million acres for August. Bean yield predictions for ‘25/’26 were decreased by 1.1 bpa to 53.6 bpa. All things considered, total soybean production was reduced by 43 million bushels, ‘24/’25 carry-in was down 20 million bushels, and total supply was decreased by 63 million bushels to 4.6 billion bushels. The USDA decreased crush predictions by 50 million bushels and export demand was reduced by 110 million bushels. This leaves ‘25/’26 carryout predictions down 5 million bushels to 290 million bushels.

WHEAT: This week’s USDA WASDE report was mainly focused on fall-crop predictions, leaving a very quiet wheat market in its wake. Wheat food usage was reduced by 5 million bushels for ‘25/’26 and exports were increased by 25 million bushels, while feed/residual and seed usage were left unchanged. In the grand scheme of things, net effects of Tuesday’s report left wheat carryout decreased by 21 million bushels, down from 890 million bushels in July, to 869 million bushels in August.

WEATHER: Skies today are sunny and hot with a high of 100°F and SW wind 20-22 mph with gusts near 33. Overnight lows drop to 70°F, just to heat back up to 102°F to close out the work week. The weekend brings temperatures in the high 90s with winds around 20mph. Early next week highs remain in the mid to high 90s with 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday night.

 

Trivia Answers

1. Ganymede

2. Hg