Weekly Market Update 8/21/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  What is the only continent without an active volcano?

2. Which Greek philosopher was the teacher of Alexander the Great?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

PRO FARMER 25: This week marked the start of a tour in South Dakota and Ohio. USDA’s August crop estimates for corn indicated potential record yields in South Dakota, driven by ample moisture resulting in lush green plants. Yield checks in southern South Dakota looked better and, as a whole, for the region averaged 198 bushels per acre, an increase from 149 bushels last year. Day 2 focused on Indiana and Nebraska, both of which indicated variable crops due to weather and disease. The western leg continues to show more consistency in yield potential than the eastern leg this year. It appears more than adequate moisture is pulling up dryland yields in Nebraska, while wet spots caused unevenness in Indiana. However, for both states, scouts pegged more than 10 bu over the three-year averages. Day 3 highlights significant disease pressure affecting corn yields in Iowa, particularly from southern rust, with reports that could result in 20–30-bushel losses. Despite this, Iowa is expected to be the leading state for corn and soybean production. In Illinois, while corn crops face challenges, soybeans are projected to yield well, although corn is described as average after field assessments.
 
INTEREST MARKET UPDATE: Wall Street focuses on the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially in light of softening employment data. There are expectations of a rate cut at next month’s meeting, with one or two more cuts anticipated by year-end. However, rising inflation raises doubts about these cuts. Fed Chair Powell is under pressure from President Trump and knows he won't remain in his position beyond May, making him reluctant to be seen as politically influenced. Recent dissent within the Fed has occurred, with two policymakers voting against Powell, one being a candidate for his replacement. Traders hope the upcoming Fed minutes will show more shifting support for rate cuts. China is also monitoring the situation, as U.S. rate cuts could allow them to implement their own stimulus measures.

CROP PROGRESS: Crop conditions continue to decrease for corn and milo nationally – corn dropping 1 point to 71% good to excellent and milo dropping 3 points at 63%. Kansas still ranks below the national average in corn and milo, both coming in at 60% good to excellent ratings. National soybean conditions have remained the same at 68% good to excellent with Kansas matching the national average.

 EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: New crop corn export sales totaled 112.6 million bushels this morning, with much of the volume calling its destination of Colombia, home. Current week export inspections totaled 41.4 million bushels. New crop soybean sales totaled 42.0 million bushels this week. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 17.4 million bushels. Wheat export inspections were reported at 14.5 million bushels and export sales totaled 19.1 million bushels, sitting on the lower side of USDA estimates this week. Once again, a quiet week for milo - no sales of O/C milo were reported and N/C sales totaled 2.5 million bushels. Current week export inspections totaled 3.3 million bushels. Milo remains 22% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets and 6% below year-to-date inspections.

WEATHER: Skies today are sunny and clear with a high near 93°F and a slight breeze. Friday will close out the work week with a high of 95°F before cooling off over the weekend and into next week. Saturday and Sunday bring highs of 85°F with 20-30% chances of thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Next week will be much cooler with highs between 65°F and 70°F and moderate chances for showers all week.

 

Trivia Answers

1. Australia

2. Aristotle