Weekly Market Update 8/7/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  What year was Major League Baseball (MLB) officially founded? 

2. Who holds the record for most career games with 7 or more RBIs? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

 CROP PROGRESS: The USDA reported Monday that 73% of the U.S. corn crop is rated good-to- excellent, matching last weeks estimates. Kansas corn is lower at only 62% good-to-excellent ratings. Nationally, corn growth is moving along, with 6% beginning to reach the dent stage. Soybean estimates are down 1% this week with only 69% in the good-to-excellent range. Kansas ranks higher than the national average with 72% of beans good-to-excellent. Milo ratings stay the same at 66% good-to-excellent; however, of that 66% there has been a 1% increase in excellent ratings. Kansas slips in at 64% good-to-excellent while 36% of the milo crop is headed.  Wheat harvest in the U.S. is continuing to push to the end at 86% complete with mostly the northern states left to finish up.
 
RUSSIA/UKRAINE CEASEFIRE: After a meeting on Wednesday between Putin and Steve Witkoff, a U.S. special envoy. Details emerged, with Trump describing the meeting as “great progress”. Similar words were spoken from the Kremlin, stating the talks were useful and constructive. Just days before the deadline set by Trump for peace or face new sanctions, which means more tariffs on countries that buy Russian exports, including India, & Maybe China. A White House official recently shared that the meeting between Witkoff and Putin was productive, expressing a positive outlook on Moscow's willingness to engage with the United States. However, it’s important to note that the anticipated secondary sanctions, which Trump previously mentioned regarding countries doing business with Russia, are still set to be enacted on Friday.

MARKET UPDATE: Markets are green across the board today, but don’t let that fool you. Corn, HRW and soybeans all put in fresh contract lows in yesterday’s trading session, bringing some buying interest back to the market. December 2025 corn broke through the $4.00 mark for the first time in its contract life yesterday, but did rally to close above it and is higher today. Fundamentals feel heavy ahead of next week’s WASDE Report, with the trade expecting a sizable increase to corn yield – the current average estimate is sitting at 184.3 bpa, well above the current USDA estimate of 181.0. This could push carryout to 1.902 billion bushels. The trade is also expecting a slightly higher soybean yield. With continued rain across the Corn Belt, great crop ratings overall, and a huge South American crop looming, it’s hard to paint a very bullish picture on the futures side. Local basis also continues to feel lackluster for fall crops, with end users expecting a large SWKS corn crop and backing off bids accordingly. Milo feels ugly as well, every day the local crop feels bigger and a trade deal feels further away.

 EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: An exciting week for export sales and inspections compared to weeks prior! Old crop corn export sales totaled 6.7 million bushels this morning. New crop sales were reported as 124.5 million bushels with private exporters reporting sales to final destinations of Mexico and Guatemala. Current week export inspections totaled 47.5 million bushels. Old crop soybean sales totaled 17.2 million bushels this week with N/C sales reported at 20.0 million bushels – pushing soybean sales above the USDA running 10-week average. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 22.5 million bushels. Wheat export inspections were reported at 22.0 million bushels and export sales totaled 27.1 million bushels, exceeding USDA estimates by 5.1 million bushels. While some commodities may have had more exciting weeks for their export programs no sales of milo were reported and current week inspections totaled 0.5 million bushels. Milo remains 27% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets and 13% below year-to-date inspections.

WEATHER: The heat has returned with highs today near 104°F and only a slight SSW wind. Tonight cools to 71°F, just to heat back up tomorrow to 107°F. The weekend won’t be quite as hot with highs in the low-to-mid 90s. Saturday and Sunday night each bring a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs early next week look to hover near 90°F with slight chances of thunderstorms.
 

Trivia Answers

1. 1898

2. Lou Gehrig at 9 RBIs