Weekly Market Update 7/10/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. How many cards are in a standard deck of playing cards? 

2. What is the name of the plastic or metal tube found on the ends of shoelaces? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

TARIFF UPDATE: As of July 8, most of the reciprocal tariffs for key trading partners have been announced, yet the stock market is holding up relatively well. This is in contrast to the widespread panic that caused the market to crash in April when the tariffs were first introduced. Today, equity trading is mixed and relatively quiet, with the Volatility Index dipping back below 17. The dollar has strengthened, trading near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are strong at 4.42%, while 2-year Treasury yields are around 3.91%. Crude oil prices are approximately 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets continue to experience weakness following Monday's decline, due to expectations of large crop yields.

CROP PROGRESS: CZ25 is trading down to 4.00, which isn't surprising, given that the USDA reported better-than-expected crop conditions. Overall crop conditions improved by one percentage point from last week, now rated at 74% good or excellent nationwide. Soybean conditions have remained stable, although there are some variations in where improvements and declines have occurred. Illinois is a crucial indicator for a bumper crop; if we do not achieve a good crop there, we may revert to a scenario similar to USDA forecasts or potentially face even worse outcomes. Spring wheat conditions have declined by 3%, now standing at 50% rated good or excellent. Specifically, North Dakota showed a decrease of 1%, South Dakota dropped 4%, Minnesota fell by 7%, and Washington decreased by 11% last week. The winter wheat harvest has progressed to 53% completion, with Kansas at 82%, Oklahoma at 83%, Texas at 83%, Colorado at 25%, and Nebraska at 22%. We can expect Kansas City wheat prices to approach contract lows as the harvest continues in the Plains, leading to some farmer selling due to concerns about declining prices.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn inspections this week totaled 58.7 million bushels, sitting in-line with USDA estimates for another week. Final destinations this week include Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. Wheat inspections totaled 16.0 million bushels again this week, a 1.5 million bushel decrease compared to the volume inspected last week. Soybeans came in at 14.3 million bushels inspected this week and milo totaling 0.4 million bushels again this week.
 
EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn export sales totaled 49.7 million bushels this morning, exceeding the upper-end of USDA estimates by 14.3 million bushels. Sales were above the running 10-week average this week. New crop corn sales totaled 35.0 million bushels. Soybean sales totaled 18.5 million bushels this week, with 9.1 million bushels of N/C sales reported. Old crop wheat sales totaled 20.9 million bushels with 0.3 million bushels of N/C sales reported. Milo sales totaled 0.7 million bushels this week and remain 24% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.



WEATHER: The summer heat is definitely taking hold, with today's temperatures reaching 96 degrees. There is a 30-60 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms today, particularly affecting the evening hours. This weekend, expect highs in the 80s and 90s, along with a possibility of morning showers on Saturday. Similar temperatures are anticipated throughout next week, with some moisture expected in the middle of the week.
 

Trivia Answers

1. 52

2. An Aglet