Weekly Market Update 7/17/2025
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
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What is James Bond's code name?
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“Call me Ishmael” is the first line from what classic novel?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
Trump/Coca-Cola Agreement: President Trump announced yesterday on Truth Social that Coca-Cola agreed to begin using cane sugar in their U.S. products. This falls right into the administrations Make America Healthy Again initiative and going away from ingredients like high-fructose corn syrup. Coca-Cola has not yet confirmed the change, but stated they appreciate the support from the administration and will be releasing new offerings soon. U.S. corn producers have spoken out with concerns of losing American food manufacturing jobs, lower farm incomes, and boosting foreign sugar imports. The corn market did take a small tumble after the announcement, while large high fructose corn syrup manufacturers’ shares dropped between 2 and 3%. Though not a huge market mover yesterday, future changes to the company’s products could have larger effects on the ag sector and domestic demand for corn.
MARKET UPDATE: Markets across the board remain relatively quiet this week. December corn futures closed at $4.24 at the close of the intraday trading session on Wednesday, reaching its third daily gain and touching the 20-day moving average. Weekly ethanol production was reported at 1.087 million barrels, increased modestly from the week prior, while ethanol stocks dropped 1%. At the close yesterday, August and November soybean contracts were up 18-cents or more, driven by a round of technical buying. A private sale of 4.4 million bushels of beans was reported yesterday for the 2025/2026 marketing year. Wheat futures closed about 1-cent lower yesterday; September futures settled at $5.23 and December futures settled at $5.45. The wheat market remains very quiet right now, with a lack of available news to push the wheat market in either direction.
CROP PROGRESS: Favorable weather conditions continue to support crop conditions and put pressure on the market. Corn ratings this week held steady from last week at 74% good-to-excellent, starkly ahead of the 5-year average of 65% and last year at 68%. Kansas had a slight weekly decline to 69% g/e from 72% last week. Nationally, this is still the third best crop rating we’ve seen in the past 13 years for this point in July. Corn is reported at 34% silking and 7% in the dough stage/ Soybeans saw a 4% weekly increase to 70% g/e, also significantly ahead of their 63% 5-year average and last year at 68%. Soybeans blooming were estimated at 47%, with 15% of the crop setting pods. Winter wheat harvest is reported at 63% complete. A slow-moving front has brought continued rain across much of the Corn Belt this week. It’s pretty hard to paint a picture for large issues for corn and soybean growing conditions in the near term, although it does look to get hotter and drier in the extended forecast.
EXPORTS: Exports were disappointing in today’s sales report, with old crop corn posting its first “ugly” week basically all year at 3.8 million bushels – well below the lowest trade estimate of 19.7 million bushels. Soybeans posted their lowest weekly sales number since early June, with 10.0 million bushels in the old crop slot and 19.5 million bushels of new crop. Wheat was lower than last week but still twice the 10-week average with 18.2 million bushels reported sold, of which HRW accounted for 12.0 million. This was firmly within the range of estimates for the week. 500,000 bushels of old crop milo were reported sold this week, but milo is sitting 25% below the pace needed to hit current USDA estimates – a dismal situation. Export inspections showed another strong week of corn shipments with 50.7 million bushels shipped, down slightly from last week but still well above average for this time of year. Wheat hung right in there too, with 16.2 million bushels inspected for shipment, down from last week but on the higher side of estimates.
WASDE RECAP: Last week, the USDA updated its forecasts for corn and soybean exports, raising corn export estimates while reducing its use for animal feed and lowering soybean residual usage. By year-end, corn exports are expected to decrease by 90 million bushels to approximately 1.66 billion bushels. In comparison, the soybean surplus is projected to rise by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels due to larger South American supplies. These adjustments have pressured both corn and soybean prices amid concerns of oversupply, despite strong crop conditions, although pollination issues have been reported in parts of the Corn Belt. Investors are focusing on upcoming crop ratings. For wheat, ending stocks for ‘24/’25 increased by 10 million bushels to 851 million, with minor adjustments in the balance sheet. Beginning stocks for '25/26 are slightly larger, and production has risen by 8 million bushels. Wheat exports have been raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million, leading to an 8 million bushel decrease in '25/’26 ending stocks, now at 890 million bushels—the most significant U.S. wheat carryout in six years, indicating progress.
WEATHER: Skies today are overcast with temperatures hovering near 65°F with highs near 81°F. Tonight brings a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms before 1am and lows near 64°F. Friday and into the weekend have highs in the mid to high 90s. Saturday night brings another slight chance of thunderstorms near 20%. Early next week we will heat back up with highs near 100°F and overnight lows hovering around 70°F.
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Trivia Answers
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007
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"Moby Dick"