Weekly Market Update 7/31/2025
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
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In mathematics, what is the name for a number that is not a prime number and has more than two factors?
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In which year did World War II end?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
CROP PROGRESS: Corn Overall corn condition is estimated at 73% good-to-excellent, which is 5 points ahead of last year. Only 7% is considered poor-to-very poor, 2 points better than last year. Kansas estimates 66% good-to-excellent and 9% poor-to-very poor. Kansas corn is 77% in the silking stage and 36% dough stage, both in-line with the national average. Soybeans Soybean conditions have increased 2 points from last week to 70% good-to-excellent, leading to fewer poor-to-very poor beans, down to 6%. Kansas soybeans are below the national good-to-excellent average at 68% and poor-to-very poor matching the national average at 6%. 63% of Kansas soybeans are blooming, and 27% are setting pods. Milo National milo conditions rank 66% good-to-excellent and 8% poor to very poor. Kansas milo is just below the national average at 63% good-to-excellent ratings. In Kansas, 19% of milo is headed and just 3% is coloring. Winter Wheat Winter wheat harvest is beginning to wind down as 80% of the U.S. crop has been harvested. Kansas is at 99% complete, along with most of the midwestern states. The national average is still 1 point behind last year as well as the five-year average.
INTEREST MARKET UPDATE: President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell share a complex relationship as the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady despite expectations for a cut. Powell stood firm during his press conference, even while facing pressure from Trump. Notably, there was dissent among Fed members, with Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller calling for an immediate rate reduction—the first double dissent since December 1993. Waller is also seen as a potential nominee to replace Powell next May, leading to increased discussions about the Fed's direction. Powell's recent hawkish comments have reduced expectations for two rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring in October. As he addresses inflation, Powell emphasized the need for solid job market data to support any cuts, aiming to distance himself from Trump's influence. Two key job reports will be released before the next Fed meeting, which may impact decision-making. This situation presents an intriguing backdrop for market observers, as differing opinions within the Fed and changing economic indicators keep us all on our toes, and it will be exciting to see how these developments unfold in the coming months!
MARKET UPDATE: Cash and new crop corn contracts fell in the overnight trading session as markets continue to feel the pressure with new crop futures following a two-month downward trend. Favorable weather conditions throughout the Midwest, coupled with high crop ratings, have traders on the edge of their seat awaiting the USDA update coming August 12th. United States ethanol production hit a six-week high last week, with production averaging 1.096 million barrels. Soybean contracts saw the lowest intraday price since early April after new crop futures fell 2 cents overnight. Improvements in crop ratings and expectations for acceptable weather conditions in the first part of August have limited much of the upward potential in the soybean market. Wheat futures gained 3.5 cents on Wednesday and were up 2.75 cents overnight. Despite strong U.S. export demand for the 2025/26 crop year, wheat markets remain subdued by ample supplies as the country approaches the end of winter wheat harvest.
EXPORTS: Early this week, corn inspections revealed a notable increase with 59.9 million bushels shipped, primarily to Japan and Mexico. In contrast, wheat inspections did not meet expectations; furthermore, there was nothing particularly exciting on the inspections side of things. Diving into new crop export sales for corn, surpassing expectations at 74.5 million bushels, while old crop sales aligned with typical figures at 13.4 million bushels as the marketing year nears its end. "Unknown" buyers emerged as the largest purchasers of the new crop, though they withdrew from 4.4 million bushels in old crop purchases. South Korea and Japan were also significant contributors to the impressive new crop sales. Additionally, there was a noteworthy flash sale of corn today, with 100,000 metric tons going to Colombia, 140,000 to South Korea, and another 136,000 to "unknown" buyers, all from the new crop. Hard Red Winter (HRW) sales were also robust, totaling 592,000 metric tons, driven in part by a substantial 197,000 metric tons purchased by "unknown" buyers, as well as participation from Venezuela, Mexico, and Nigeria. While the milling markets seem somewhat softer, buyers remain vigilant about protein levels and volumes, which is keeping bids active in the rail market. However, sales for soybeans and Milo are trailing behind.
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Trivia Answers
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Composite Number
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1945