Weekly Market Update 6/12/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Jim Henson is the creator of what beloved cast of characters? 

2. M&M’S Fruit Chews would eventually become what popular candy? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

 USDA RECAP: A very quiet USDA supply and demand estimate report across the board this month. Corn saw no changes to the 2024/25 balance sheet, except for an increase in exports by 50 million bushels; pushing total world carryout to 1.365 billion bushels, down from the 1.415 billion bushels seen in May’s report. As a net result of the changes in carryout seen for 24/25, 25/26 carry-in was subsequently decreased. Estimates for Brazilian corn production was also left unchanged. All values reported on the soybean balance sheet today remain unchanged from the values reported in May. Wheat paints much of the same picture today; no changes to the 2024/25 balance sheets and minor changes for 2025/26. Today’s report shows an estimated increase in U.S. exports for 2025/26 by 25 million bushels, tightening 2025/26 U.S. carryout by 25 million bushels to 898 million bushels.

Overall, there were minimal market reactions this morning. Much of the focus continues to ride on the anticipation of the biofuel blending mandate from the EPA.



Exports: An overall “meh” week of sales, with old crop corn sales within the range of estimates at 31.2 million bushels, but down about six million bushels from the previous week. Japan was the largest buyer, followed by Mexico and Colombia. New crop corn saw cancellations of 1.2 million bushels. Soybean sales came in below the lowest pre-report estimate at 2.3 million bushels, with new crop sales totaling 2.1 million. Wheat sales were also below the range of estimates at 14.3 million bushels, while milo posted the highest sales number in a few months at 3.6 million bushels. Export inspections threw up some large numbers this week, with corn shipments at a whopping 65.2 million bushels, higher than even the highest estimate. Corn shipments are sitting at 6% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to hit current USDA estimates. Soybeans also put up a high number at 20.1 million bushels inspected for export, with milo at 1.1 million, and wheat a little lower than expected at 10.7 million.

U.S.-China Trade Talks: Officials from the U.S. and China met in London this week to negotiate possibilities of de-escalating current trade tensions. It’s been reported that the two countries have reached a “handshake agreement” to roll back some of the measures taken by both sides in the last few months – returning the two countries to the terms of the trade talks that was reached back in May. While full details of the agreement have not been released, it is expected that China will relax its restrictions on minerals needed by U.S. manufacturers, while the U.S. will roll back limits on U.S. exports of technology including ethane and airplane parts as well as easing restrictions placed on Chinese students. For now, there has been no announcement of progress on other trade issues, including agriculture. While we still wait to see benefits for our industry, these talks do seem like a step in the right direction. Time will tell.

INTEREST MARKET UPDATE: Yesterday, in summary, the interest rate market reacted positively to the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In May, the CPI rose by only 0.1%, compared to the expected increase of 0.2%. The core CPI also came in at 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.3%, which caught economists by surprise as no one anticipated it to be this low. As a result, the headline inflation rate is now 2.4% year-over-year, while the core inflation rate stands at 2.8% year-over-year. In response, markets celebrated with a drop in interest rates, a rally in equities, and an increase in the odds for a rate cut in September. CPI Surprises to the Downside — No Tariff Pass-Through (Yet). Next week’s FOMC meeting is expected to be significant, primarily due to the statements rather than the actions. We’ll get updated forecasts on interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and unemployment, along with a new Dot Plot. Chair Powell will likely navigate the political landscape carefully. The tone and direction of the Fed's message could be notably influenced by the data released in the past few days.

 CROP PROGRESS: As of June 8, the USDA reports that 97% of the U.S. corn crop and 90% of the soybean crop have been planted, both meeting or exceeding five-year averages. Notably, regions in the northern and western belt are progressing ahead of schedule, while southern and eastern areas face delays but have more time to plant. Warmer temperatures have had a positive impact on crop conditions, with 71% of corn rated as Good to Excellent (up 2 points from last week) and 68% of soybeans (up 1 point). The winter wheat crop improved to 54% Good to Excellent, above the five-year average, while spring wheat stands at 53% Good to Excellent, though still below the average.

WEATHER: Skies are sunny today with a high of 88°F with southeast wind around 15 mph, staying clear this evening with a low of 62°F. Summer temps are finally here with highs in the low to mid-90s with overnight lows in the mid-60s through Tuesday. The weekend brings low overnight thunderstorm chances - 20% - through Monday night. Later into next week looks to be bringing more of the same; heat with little to no rain chances – just in time for harvest.
 

Trivia Answers

1. The Muppets

2. Starburst