Weekly Market Update 6/26/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What sport was featured on the first curved U.S. coin in 2014?

2. Who invented the cotton gin?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: Across the board, grains are feeling the pressure this week. Bearish weather conditions, expectations around a record US harvest, and historic crop numbers out of South America continue to weigh heavily on the corn market. For soybeans, its much of the same story; optimal growing conditions in the US, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices and less-than-impressive export commitments have all added pressure to the market. As tensions in the Middle East quiet down, much of the wheat market’s focus has turned to harvest across the Plains and large global supplies.

KS WHEAT HARVEST 25: 1-4 in the books for the Kansas wheat harvest 2025. The Day 1 wheat harvest report indicated that southern Kansas faced delays due to scattered showers and high humidity, with the harvest only 3% complete, significantly behind last year's 25%. By Day 2, harvesting picked up in southwest Kansas as temperatures reached around 100 degrees, while central Kansas paused due to rainfall but was expected to resume with hotter weather ahead. By Day 3, activity surged across southern and central Kansas, but the wheat streak mosaic virus continued to pose a challenge to yields. As of June 22, 2025, the USDA reported that the Kansas wheat harvest was only 20% complete, significantly lagging behind last year's 49% and the national average of 31%. The condition of winter wheat was rated 23% poor to very poor, 32% fair, and 45% good to excellent. On Day 4, progress varied regionally, with Russell County averaging 60 bushels per acre, and Wilson County nearing the end of its harvest, with test weights ranging from 57 to 58. A Bazine location reported harvesting approximately 235,000 bushels so far, with an overall completion rate of 20-25%. However, challenges from the wheat streak mosaic virus and recent heavy rains persisted.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn inspections this week totaled 58.1 million bushels, sitting in-line with estimates and remaining 5% above the required rate to maintain seasonal pace. Shipments to Mexico and Japan accounted for 23.4 million bushels this week, with the remaining portion of corn shipping to final destinations of South Korea, Colombia, and Spain, like last week. Wheat inspections totaled 9.4 million bushels, with final destinations including Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines. Soybeans came in at 7.1 million bushels inspected this week and milo totaling 3.2 million bushels, a 2.1 million bushel increase compared to last week.

EXPORT SALES:Old crop corn export sales totaled 29.2 million bushels this morning, sown 6.4 million bushels from last week. Sales this week fall below the running 10-week average. The largest portion of this week’s volume will be shipped to final destinations of Colombia and Japan. New crop corn sales totaled 12.0 million bushels. Soybean sales totaled 14.8 million bushels this week, with 5.7 million bushels of N/C sales reported. Wheat sales fell below USDA estimates this week, totaling 9.4 million bushels with much of the volume traveling to final destinations of Japan and Mexico. Milo continues to paint the same picture this week, with sales totaling 1.2 million bushels, 0.8 million bushels below last week’s reported volume. Milo remains 21% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets. 

STOCKS AND ACREAGE REPORT: USDA will release the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings report on Monday at 11:00AM. Estimates are below, with the trade expecting a reduction in corn stocks year-over-year, and an increase to acreage from the March report with the average trade guess at 95.35 million acres. Soybeans expected to have similar stocks to last year with a slight increase in planted acres. Wheat stocks are higher year-on-year, with acreage expected to be mostly steady. This report is typically associated with high volatility and is a major market mover, so it may be worth thinking about any levels you’re looking for and getting pricing orders in with the GCC Grain Team pre-report.



WEATHER: Skies are mostly sunny today with highs near 89°F with NW wind around 7 mph and becoming southeast this afternoon. Tonight will be partly cloudy with a low around 64°F. The weekend looks to be dry and sunny with highs in the mid-90s with south winds around 10 mph. Sunday night into early next week brings back slight chances of thunderstorms in the evenings through Tuesday and daily temps around 90°F.  

Trivia Answers

1. Baseball

2. Eli Whitney