Weekly Market Update 5/8/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the smallest planet in our solar system?

2. Who discovered electricity by flying a kite during a thunderstorm?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: July and December corn futures are down to start the intraday trading session this morning. Warmer weather and mostly dry forecasts throughout the next week and the rapid US corn planting progress we’ve seen so far, continue to put pressure on the market. July Kansas City HRW futures rose 1-cent during the overnight trading session, after falling 8.5-cents during the intraday session Wednesday. After recent rains throughout the Midwest improving crop conditions and recent export competition, we can likely expect limited price rallies moving forward. Soybeans see gains overnight for both July and November futures. Soybean markets have recently been pressured by decreasing US exports, as buyers look to purchase South American crops instead. However, talks of a trade deal with the United Kingdom and China have increased the hopes for additional market support as they continue to evolve. The May WASDE report set to be released Monday, May 12^th, is looking to present bearish corn data – with anticipated record corn production and larger stockpile values yet. Wheat stockpiles are also expected to climb in the supply and demand report, which would be the highest values since 2019/2020. Monday’s WASDE report is predicted to show a small decrease in soybean supplies for 2025/2026, coupled with the expectation of lower planted acreage this spring.

THE FED: The Federal Reserve meeting this week concluded with little excitement. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate target at 4.25% to 4.50%, with the overnight rate at about 4.35%. No new forecasts were issued, so focus shifted to the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. The policy statement noted stable unemployment at 4.2%, slightly down from 4.3% last summer, and emphasized the solid labor market. However, inflation remains elevated. Historically, this unemployment rate is low. During the press conference, Powell stated, "We are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," which aligns with current expectations. A change in interest rates is unlikely unless tariffs cause higher inflation or there is a significant decline in employment data.

CHINESE TARIFFS: Markets continue to feel the yo-yo from changing headlines around tariffs. President Trump said this morning that he would not consider lowering U.S. tariffs on China to usher in trade-war negotiations. This comes ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese trade official He Lifeng in Switzerland to discuss trade and economic issues later this week. Bessent said that the goal of the upcoming meeting is de-escalation rather than any kind of deal. Despite indications that Beijing will play hardball, China has granted tariff exemptions from its retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. goods including pharmaceuticals, microchips, and aircraft engines.

CROP PLANTING PROGRESS: The recent sell-off in corn futures on Monday was driven by expectations of strong planting progress. This was confirmed Monday afternoon when it was reported that corn planting is now 40% complete, one percentage point ahead of the average and five points ahead of last year. Soybean planting progress is quick; it is expected to accelerate even more this week. We will receive a USDA report following Monday, which may indicate nearly record-breaking planting progress. It is hoped that these reports will show fewer adverse outcomes. Additionally, deliveries have almost ceased as products have found buyers. Some of the driest areas in the U.S. and the growing regions have experienced a dramatic transition from extreme drought to significant flooding in less than two months. The drought conditions are expected to improve this week.

EXPORTS: Corn inspections are declining but remain above average, with 63.3 million bushels shipped last week and cumulative shipments significantly exceeding estimates. Wheat inspections fell to their lowest level since early March at 11.4 million bushels, with Mexico and the Philippines being the leading importers. Japan was the biggest buyer of U.S. corn, while Mexico led in soybean purchases. Milo purchases at 1.3 million bushels. The wheat complex saw 2.6 million in sales for the week additionally 18.1 million bushels for new crop.



WEATHER: Could this week be our first glimpse at summer? Temperatures today and tomorrow are looking to be in low- to mid-70s, with sunny skies, and a light breeze at 5-9 mph coming out of the Northeast. Your weekend forecast appears to be high temperatures in the upper-70s with clear skies overnight and temperatures in the mid- to upper-40s. Next week, temperatures are expected to fall in the 80s to 90s. No chances of precipitation in the next 7-day forecast as we look forward to most sunny skies and warmer weather.

Trivia Answers

1. Mercury

2. Benjamin Franklin