Weekly Market Update 11/06/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Relative to the internet, what does “URL” stand for?  

2. Which continent covers all four hemispheres of the earth?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: Day 37 of the partial government shutdown. December corn was up 2 ½-cents in the overnight trading session on Wednesday after reaching $4.3525 – the highest close since July 3rd. At the close today, December corn was down 6 ½-cents to $4.2875. Corn markets continue to see some support from exporters and ethanol producer demand; however, market upside is limited amid recent farmer selling action and the anticipation of next week’s USDA WASDE report. As soybean futures rolled into January, markets fell 10-cents overnight after gaining 12 ¾-cents on Wednesday. Today, the soybean market closed at $11.0750, down 26 ¾-cents. Rallies in the soybean market seem to be slowing down with the uptick in recent farmer selling and some corrective action was seen overnight following gains on Wednesday. Traders believe market upside will remain limited while details of the trade agreement between the US and China continue to evolve. Skepticism over Chinese purchases of US soybeans have many traders and analysts on the edge of their seats. December wheat futures fell 8-cents overnight, some corrective pullback, after climbing 3 ½-cents on Wednesday. December wheat closed the intraday trading session at $5.2225, down 17 ¾-cents. Wheat markets have recently seen sharp gains amid heavy fund short coverings and the idea that the market has reached a near-term bottom. Reuters reported that China has purchased two cargoes of US wheat, their first purchases since October 2024. Export demand coupled with recent Chinese purchases have added some price support to the market.

USDA ANOUNCEMENT: The USDA will release its November crop production estimates and the November WASDE supply-and-demand balance sheets despite the government shutdown. However, these reports will be published on November 14, rather than the previously scheduled date of November 10. Most of this year's crops have already been harvested, so the USDA will base its production estimates primarily on farmer surveys. It will then have the opportunity to compare these estimates with the results of its quarterly stock survey on December 1, assuming the government is open to conducting the survey by then. It's important to see the USDA's official production estimates by the end of next week. There is a risk of a significant market correction if their estimates differ greatly from the current private estimates guiding the market, but the USDA's numbers will ultimately determine market trading. StoneX collected customer feedback for its monthly survey earlier this week. The responses will be compiled to update our production estimates. Additional private estimates will be published in the following days.

SUPREME COURT ON TARIFFS: The US Supreme Court continues to deliberate over President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs through oral arguments. There is discussion of narrowing presidential authority over trade actions. According to Reuters, if the Supreme Court deems the tariffs unlawful, the US Treasury will have to refund plaintiffs. There is still much discussion to be had, but is something to pay attention to as the verdict could have a large impact on the markets.

CROP PROGRESS: With the government shutdown, the industry is still reliant on third-party analysts for crop progress updates. Fall harvest seems to see the finish line as corn is estimated to be 83% harvested and soybeans 91% nationally. Winter wheat planting is also near completion at 91% planted with nearly 52% rated good to excellent.

WEATHER: Sunny skies today with highs near 75°F with a slight breeze, becoming north in the afternoon. Tonight will stay clear with lows near 39°F. To finish of the work week, skies are sunny again with a high of 67°F and lows of 39°F. Highs Saturday reach to 60°F before high winds and a low of 23°F overnight. Sunday remains colder with a high near 44°F and a low near 19°F. Next week warms back up to near 70°F with lows in the upper 30s.

Trivia Answers

1. Uniform resource locator

2. Africa