Weekly Market Update 11/13/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What was the first product to have a bar code?

2. What is the only state that can be typed on one row of the keyboard?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

TRADE DEAL UPDATE: Analysts are beginning to believe that the trade agreement reached in late October between the US and China was more of a de-escalation tactic versus an actual trade agreement. As of today, specific details of the trade agreement have yet to come to fruition. Many people are left wondering what the long-term viability of the deal might look like. A trade deal does not necessarily mean that the long-term goals of either President Xi or the Chinese Communist Party have changed. As StoneX chief commodities economist, Arlan Suderman stated, “China plays the long-game, and it knows that President Trump is only a short-timer in the United States. Everything could change next November if he loses Congress.” China currently maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, making the US crop less competitive in the global market compared to other countries, like Brazil. At this time, Beijing has still yet to confirm the specifics of their purchase commitments. 

OPEN GOVERNMENT: Expect significant delays in data releases in the coming days and weeks. Some sectors view this as an opportunity, while others see it as a risk. Recently, the tech sector received warnings indicating that it may be overvalued, so the possibility of upcoming data confirming this was perceived as a threat today, leading to a substantial selloff in the market. On the other hand, soybean and corn traders are noticing unexpected demand following several key trade agreements signed during the shutdown, prompting them to consider a bullish outlook. As a result, while stock prices declined sharply today, the grain and oilseed sectors experienced gains. The VIX index rose to just below 20 at midday, and the dollar index fell to a two-week low near 99.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading around 4.11%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are around 3.59%. Additionally, crude oil prices have risen modestly after a sharp decline yesterday.

CROP PROGRESS: The USDA Crop Progress report should resume on Monday, conveniently a week before the reports change to a monthly release. Independent analysts estimate corn harvest at 92% complete, 3% behind the USDA report from last year. Soybeans are estimated to be 96% harvested, right in line with last year. Winter wheat planting is 95% complete with 52% of the crop rated good to excellent.

NOVEMBER WASDE PREVIEW: USDA will release the November WASDE tomorrow, November 14^th at 11:00AM. This will be the first official update to the U.S. and global balance sheets since September 12^th. The market is largely expecting downward adjustments to corn yields and U.S. corn production, which is expected to be offset and then some by decreases on the demand side (feed perhaps) of the balance sheet – with the market largely expecting a net increase to corn carryout. A small decrease is expected for soybean yields as well, but expected lowered demand could mean a higher soybean carryout. U.S. and global carryouts are expected to see increases across the commodities. I’d largely argue that the markets have been baking in trade estimates on production and carryout even with the lack of government reports, so am not expecting any huge market moving. However, USDA does sometimes throw surprises that can mean volatility, so it’s worth having orders working on grain you need to move.



WEATHER:Skies today are sunny with a high near 73°F. Lows tonight cool off to 37°F with a slight breeze. Friday brings warm weather with a high near 80°F and clear skies. The weekend will have a gradual cool down with 75°F on Saturday and 67°F on Sunday. Overnight lows will hover near 40°F. Next week will be cooler with highs in the high 50s and lows just above freezing, near 33°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Wrigley’s gum

2. Alaska