Weekly Market Update 11/20/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. The Amazon River flows primarily through which country?

2. What is the smallest country in the world by area?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: Corn: The market is influenced by the soybean market, and outdated USDA export sales data has led to indifference. Current FOB values are favorable for the US over Brazil, while the Brazilian port basis remains steady. Soybeans: There were new flash sales to China (462 tmt for 25/26), but the market reacted negatively, with prices dipping. The export sales report didn't affect current trading because the data was outdated. The Phase Two agreement did not create new demand or destroy existing demand, with a focus on whether 6 mmt of soybean demand will come from the current or next year. A potential shift of 3 million acres from corn to soybeans is noted, but it may not be sufficient to meet trend yields. Wheat: Prices fell alongside corn and soybeans, with EU futures showing a smaller decline. The USDA reported a flash sale of 132 tmt of SWW to China, but there's ample carryout to diminish bullish sentiment. The Trade is monitoring soil moisture in the winter wheat belt, where 41% of the area is experiencing drought, though key producing areas are currently unaffected.

CROP PROGRESS: USDA released their first Crop Progress Report since the shutdown on November 17, 2025, just in time for the end of harvest. Kansas corn harvest is estimated 92% finished, nearly 7% behind last year’s pace. Nationally, the harvested average is 91%, which is also behind last year. Milo harvest is still dragging in Kansas as only 77% of the crop has been harvested, nearly 14% behind the average of the last 5 years. Soybeans are 91% harvested in Kansas and nearly 95% nationally. Winter wheat planting is just about complete in Kansas with 95% of the crop in the ground and 85% of that has emerged. Just over half of the winter wheat that has been planted is rated good to excellent. Soil moisture conditions are favorable throughout most of the state with 67% adequate topsoil moisture and 70% adequate subsoil moisture.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn export inspections were robust this past week, with 80.9 million bushels shipped, exceeding estimates and setting a new weekly high for the marketing year. Mexico, Japan, and South Korea were the top three destinations for these shipments, which is not surprising. Wheat Export inspections slowed from the previous week, with 246k MT reported to Japan, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Mexico. HRW was loaded from the PNW to Japan and was part of a combo boat to Nigeria. KC spot rail bids pulled back late Friday amid cooling demand in the interior, as mills wait for November applications to come their way. Beans saw 43.2 million bushels shipped, sitting right in the middle of estimates, still below the pace needed. Milo shipped 3.3 million bushels, beating the 10-week average.

EXPORT SALES: The corn sales report as of October 2nd showed 89 million bushels sold, primarily to the usual buyers. While receiving this backlog of data is beneficial, it would be more advantageous to return to up-to-date figures. The main question is: where do we go from here? In the short term, corn is likely to continue mirroring soybeans' trend. Recently, there was a flash sale of soybeans and wheat to China; however, there have been no corn sales to China as of yet. As of October 2, the wheat complex had booked a total of 888,000 metric tons. This includes 234,000 metric tons sold to an unknown destination, 110,000 metric tons to Bangladesh, and 106,000 metric tons to Mexico. The (HRW) accounted for the sales to Mexico, with 87,000 metric tons going to an unknown destination and 55,000 metric tons to Indonesia. The Matif wheat fund report indicated that funds began selling Paris wheat following recent liquidations, resulting in their current short position of 238,000 contracts, up from 212,000 contracts last week. There were zero U.S. bean imports to China in October. A total of 33.8 million bushels were sold to top destinations, including Egypt, Mexico, and Turkey, while milo reported sales of 6.7 million bushels.



WEATHER: Dreary today with light mist/fog and showers after 1pm. Highs are cooler near 52°F. Rain is expected tonight, mostly before midnight, estimated to a half inch to three quarters possible. Tomorrow stays cool and cloudy with a high near 50°F with a 30% chance of showers and patchy fog before 3pm. Sunshine returns briefly on Saturday with a high near 58°F and lows near 36°F. Rain showers return Sunday and early next week with precipitation chances between 30% and 50% and highs near 55°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Brazil

2. Vatican City