Weekly Market Update 10/09/2025
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
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How many states does the Appalachian Trail cross?
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Who was the first president to visit all 50 states?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
Due to the Government Shutdown
Exports – Crop progress reports not available.
MARKET UPDATE: USDA data has been put on hold while the government shutdown remains in effect – leaving many farmers wondering where commodity markets may land in the near future. December corn was down ¼-cent in the overnight trading session Wednesday. At the close today, December corn was down 3 ½-cents to $4.1850. Many analysts see the USDA dialing back yield and production estimates as harvest progresses, however the market generally remains bearish as record corn production remains on the horizon. Rains throughout portions of the corn belt early in the week likely caused a temporary pause in harvest progress, however increasing temperatures and dry conditions are expected to return in the remaining portion of the week. November soybeans fell 5 ¼-cents overnight after increasing 7 ½-cents on Wednesday. Today, soybean markets closed at $10.2175, down 7 ¾-cents. Markets find some support from an anticipated government aid announcement and the hopes that China will purchase US soybeans in the future, however time is of the essence. We could be looking at a decrease in soybean yield estimates, as analysts assume production make be lowered to 53.2 bushels per acre, down from USDA’s 53.5 bushel per acre estimate seen in September’s report. Little to no changes are expected to be made to the 25/26 soybean stockpiles. December wheat futures rose 3 ¾-cents overnight after subsequently increasing 3 ½-cents on Wednesday. December wheat closed the intraday trading session at $4.9050, down 2 ¾-cents. Wheat saw some technical recovery in the overnight trading session but the potential for a market increase remains limited amid a large US harvest with ample grain supplies. Based on the Reuters survey, ending stocks for 25/26 are expected to climb by 31 million bushels to 875 million bushels. Global wheat stockpiles are also expected to swell at the 25/26 marketing year close. For more on the government shutdown and it’s impact on commodity markets, read more in the rest of the update.
Government Shutdown: Today marks the ninth day of the U.S. government shutdown, with Congress remaining deadlocked in a dispute over the federal budget. USDA has suspended the release of its regular reports due to the shutdown, which means that we are not getting much of the information that we would usually report on (export sales, export inspections, crop progress, etc.). The October WASDE report was scheduled for release today and was not published. However, trade estimates are out there – the expectation is an increase in US corn carryout from the September report with the average trade estimate at 2.231 billion bushels. No huge changes are expected for soybean carryout, and a slight increase is expected for wheat carryout. Global carryout increases are expected for all three commodities. The trade will have a keen eye on what USDA does with expected corn yields/production when the report comes out. The shutdown has also delayed an expected announcement from the Trump administration on farm subsidies from tariff revenue amid a struggling farm economy. For now, Congress seems unable to reach a compromise with the Senate today failing to advance two competing spending proposals from both sides of the aisle. Guess that at least for the moment, we wait and see.
CEASEFIRE REACHED: Following the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, few people are confident that lasting peace will be achieved. However, most are hopeful that this marks the beginning of a move toward stability in the region. Israel agreeing to partially withdraw from Gaza. In return, Hamas has promised to release hostages taken during its attack on Israel two years ago—this includes 20 Israeli hostages believed to be alive, as well as another 26 hostages who have been declared dead in absentia. The fate of two additional hostages remains unknown.
The two-year conflict that followed Hamas's initial attack significantly reshaped the Middle East and had a dramatic impact on the movement of commodities through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, along with a tremendous human cost. The ceasefire is the first step in President Trump's plan for peace in the Middle East. Peace agreements in this region are often fragile, but progress rarely occurs without negotiation. Therefore, today’s achievement is celebrated by both sides of the conflict.
WEATHER: Skies today are sunny and warm with a high near 86°F and south-southwest winds around 15 mph. Warmer weather sticks around moving into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s. Early next week cools back off to highs near 70°F and a few chances of rain – 30% Monday night and 20% Tuesday.
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Trivia Answers
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14
- Richard Nixon