Weekly Market Update 10/16/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  What is the only bird that can fly backward? 

2. Which Tesla CEO also co-founded PayPal?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News


MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS: Water levels at the Ohio River in Cairo, Illinois, have fallen below the gauge's low threshold, and levels at the Mississippi River in Memphis are expected to drop as well. With the harvest already underway, agricultural shippers are being forced to load their barges lighter due to the threat of low water conditions developing in the coming weeks. Water levels have been depleting for the last four years in a row, which is concerning for the agriculture sector. Rising barge rates ultimately impact elevators and producers. Given the current commodity prices, producers are trying to find ways to adapt. If low water conditions materialize, it could further depress prices that China's reduced buying has already impacted due to tariffs. When demand softens, the last thing we want is for profitability to be further diminished because our transportation system is not operating at full capacity. At the end of the day, the United States and China remain locked in a trade war until our governments resolve their issues. This issue affects bids and transportation, and unfortunately, it gives foreign competitors, such as Brazil and Argentina, an opportunity to fill the gap.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Day 16 of the government shutdown; headlines spewing out of DC, leaving grain markets wandering aimlessly in their wake. A Reuters survey expected net corn sales somewhere between 35.4 and 78.7 million bushels for the week ending October 9^th. Current week export inspections totaled 44.5 million bushels – 2.7 million bushels below beginning trade estimates. Soybean sales were estimated to be between 18.4 and 51.4 million bushels, based on the Reuters survey. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 36.5 million bushels. US soybean shipments during the first 6 weeks of the 25/26 marketing year were down 26% from the same period in 24/25, for the week ending October 9^th. Reuters estimated net US wheat exports between 11 and 23.9 million bushels. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 16.3 million bushels – in-line with trade estimates. Milo export inspections totaled 0.8 million bushels, 5% below year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.



NOPA Crush: Soybeans are having a slight rebound today on strong domestic crush numbers. NOPA reported September crush at 197.9 million bushels, higher than even the highest trade estimate and soaring above the average estimate of 186.3 million bushels. This was higher than August crush at 189.8 million bushels and crushed last September’s crush of 177.3 million, which was the previous largest September crush on record. USDA is expecting a 5% increase in crush from last year, which will be important with China still remaining absent on the export side and a huge crop looming on the horizon.

CROP PROGRESS: With the government shutdown, USDA is not publishing the weekly crop progress report; however, Reuters conducted a poll of 10 analysts on crop progress. Corn is estimated to be 44% harvested nationally with an average good to excellent rating of 64%, down 1 point from last week. Soybean harvest is 58% completed, with a steady 61% of the crop rated good to excellent. The analysts also estimated winter wheat planting at 66% complete.  

WEATHER: Warmer temperatures are back today with a high of 82°F and windy with gusts near 38 mph. This evening brings a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with a low near 52°F. The weekend looks to be clear with highs near 70°F. Overnight lows begin to drop below 50°F, down to 37°F Saturday night. Monday brings a high of 80°F before cooling back off to the low 60s midweek with overnight lows near 40°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Hummingbirds

2. Elon Musk