Weekly Market Update 10/2/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Between 1991 and 2005, which MLB team made the playoffs 14 consecutive times, an MLB postseason record?

2. Which NFL team has the worst winning percentage in NFL history?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

GOV SHUTDOWN: Trump has warned that some government employees may lose their jobs if the government shutdown continues, possibly as a negotiating tactic. The Democrats continue to block a Senate funding bill that would keep the government open, with little progress in negotiations. If no agreement is reached, a partial shutdown will continue. With previous shutdowns, Democratic leaders caved to Republicans, allowing the government to stay open, which drew backlash from party activists for not using the shutdown threat effectively. This time, I expect Democrats to hold firm and advocate for their positions, responding to their party's demands. What does this mean for the markets? From a practical standpoint, a partial government shutdown would likely leave agricultural markets without key crop data in the midst of this year’s harvest, leaving traders uncertain about the size of this year’s corn and soybean crops, and causing them to rely more heavily on private estimates. Those private estimates have thus far been pretty close to USDA numbers. Nonetheless, it would lead to some uncertainty in the markets, similar to what we saw in the October 2013 shutdown when we failed to get a timely October WASDE crop report that year as well. Weekly crop progress, export sales, and inspection data would also be expected to come to a halt if the partial government shutdown resumes.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn export inspections were strong, with 60.1 million BU shipped this past week, continuing to trend well above average for this time of year. There were no surprises in terms of destinations, with Mexico taking the largest quantity by far, followed by Japan and South Korea. Harvest is estimated to be 18% complete, just behind both the average and last year's levels. However, as discussed before, considering last year's exceptionally quick harvest and the weather's apparent delay here, at least in Kansas. Wheat inspections slowed from the previous week for all classes, but HRW posted the largest week of the last ten weeks with 14.1 million BU. HRW loadings included Nigeria and Bangladesh from the Gulf, as well as Japan and Sri Lanka from the PNW. Soybeans shipped 21.8 million, which appears to be on the lower side of the estimates, with no shipments for milo.

CROP PROGRESS: Harvest is slowly getting started and crop conditions have decreased a small amount in Kansas but are right with national averages. Corn decreased 1 point to 60% good to excellent from last week while soybeans dropped 3 points to 65% good to excellent. Milo good to excellent ratings have remained the same at 63%. Harvest has picked up from the prior weeks with corn 29% harvested, milo 7%, and soybeans 5% harvested.

USDA STOCKS REPORT: Tuesday morning, the USDA released its Quarterly Stocks report as of September 1^st – pushing commodity markets downward in its wake. Corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bu, 200 million bu higher than the average trade predictions and exceeding the upper end of the estimate range. Following the bearish news; higher corn stocks, coupled with accelerating harvest progress, continue to limit the potential for a market rally. Soybean markets were generally overlooked in this week’s report, with quarterly stocks 7 million bu tighter than the average estimates. Much of the soybean complex pressure will continue to ride on US-Chinese relations. Wheat stocks were increased to 2.120 billion bu on Tuesday, up 6.4% from a year ago and about 77 million bu above expectations. Production across all wheat classes increased by 60 million bu to 1.985 billion bu. Specifically, HRW was increased by 35 million bu to 804 million bu, SRW was increased 14 million bu, HWW was down 3 million bu, and HRS was increased 10 million bu. With ample supplies in the market and bearish USDA stocks, wheat market upside remains limited.


 
WEATHER: Summer-like weather returns to end the week with a high today of 90°F and sunny skies. Friday will be hot with a high of 95°F. The weekend brings highs of 89°F and gusty winds, before cooling back off next week. Early next week looks to be mostly sunny with highs near 70°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Atlanta Braves

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers