Weekly Market Update 10/30/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the most common surname in the United States?  

2. What river flows through the Grand Canyon?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News


CHINESE & US TRADE DEAL: Day 30 of the ongoing partial government shutdown, but today’s attention focuses on the long-awaited trade agreement between the US and China. Overnight a final agreement was reached between President Trump and President Xi focusing on technology, agriculture, rare earth minerals, and fentanyl. The agriculture portion of the agreement focused heavily on increased purchases of US soybeans, sorghum grain, and other unspecified farm products. United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that China agreed to purchase 12 MMT of US soybeans in the current season through January and will purchase another 25 MMT in each of the next 3 years. Chinese officials agreed to suspend export controls on rare earth minerals for the next year and to tighten the restrictions on the export of chemical components used in fentanyl production. The US agreed to immediately lower its fentanyl tariff by 10%, decreasing the effective tariff rate to 47%, while also suspending the threat to add an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting on November 1^st. A finalized trade agreement is expected to be signed sometime next week. 

INTEREST MARKET UPDATE: The Fed cut rates yesterday by 0.25%, lowering the Fed Funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was 10-2, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting for a larger cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposing any cut. The focus remains on gradualism, with the potential for small cuts if the data supports them, but no commitments. Powell emphasized that this cut does not guarantee further changes, despite market expectations, framing inflation risks as upside and employment risks as downside. The Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, but Chair Powell cautioned against a repeated cutting strategy, focusing on a slowing labor market rather than ongoing reductions. With inflation around 3% and robust core services, multiple additional cuts aren’t likely. Consequently, fixed rates have risen, leading to higher forward and swap rates. It may be wise to lock in floating-rate debt for stability in this changing environment. As September concludes, we look ahead to December and the new year. If inflation stabilizes and the job market softens, an interest rate cut could be on the table a pleasant surprise. However, if conditions don’t align, we may need to maintain current rates. Looking to next year, there’s hope for measured rate cuts, moving away from the rapid adjustments we've seen before.

CROP PROGRESS: For the fourth straight week, we are depending on third-party analysts for crop progress reports. Fall harvest pushed on with 72% of corn harvested and 84% of soybeans harvested, both up significantly from last week. Winter wheat continues to get in the ground with an estimated 84% planted, up from 75% last week.  

WEATHER: Much cooler weather this week as overnight lows have dipped to below freezing. Today the high is 62°F and sunny with a north wind 16 to 21 mph, gusting to 37 mph. Skies tonight will be clear with a low near 29°F. Clouds will increase to close out the work week with a high near 58°F and overnight lows near 29°F. Saturday stays cooler with a high near 54°F before warming up on Sunday to 70°F and sunny. Early next week brings clear skies with temperatures near 70°F and lows around 40°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Smith

2. Colorado River