Weekly Market Update 9/12/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the national sport of Japan?

2. What was the original name for Google?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

As we dive into today’s WASDE, the corn production number increases further as the USDA identifies more acres. Corn: 2024/25 corn exports are up 10 million bushels, with exports down 5 million bushels, while corn use for ethanol drops 35 million bushels. Overall, old-crop carryout increases by 20 million bushels. New-crop acres up 1.3-1.4 million, which more than offsets a 2.1 bpa yield increase; estimated 186.70 BPA, production is up another 72 million bu. 2025/26 corn exports up another 100 million bu to a massive nearly 3 billion bu, which actually leaves overall carryout down slightly from August. World OC stocks up 1 million tonnes with NC carryout down around a million; USDA raises 2024/25 BRZ crop by 3 MMT, but 2025/26 E.U. output falls by 2.7 MMT. However, production is stabilizing, but there are concerns about meeting record feed demand. GCAU are lower; feed wheat is at 120 million, and milo is essentially free. There's record export demand despite the looming impact of Brazil's crop on the market. Risks related to demand will persist for the remainder of the year, and simply raising prices won't resolve the issues.

Milo: Left acres unchanged, raised yield slightly, raised FSI/ethanol crush 15 million, but calmly leaving exports at 225 million, with us on pace for 80 million.

Beans: 2024/25 balance table little-changed. 2025/26 acres up 200k while yields fall 0.1 bpa, leaving a 9 million bu increase in production. NC crush up 15 million bu while exports lost 20 million bu. Overall, the result is a 10 million bu increase in carryout. Both old and new-crop world ending stocks are down slightly, no major changes there.

 Wheat: 2025/26 U.S. wheat exports gain 25 million bu for a 25 million bu loss in carryout -only change on the domestic side. World new-crop carryout is up 4 MMT with global production up 9.3 MMT, including increases for a handful of countries -AUS, CAN, EU, RUS, and UKR. Results: soybeans hold on to pre-report gains with the tighter carryout there, but grain is hit overall by a still-massive 2025 U.S. corn harvest.



 CROP PROGRESS: National corn ratings saw a slight decrease this week, down 1% to 68% good/excellent. This is still well ahead of the 57% 5-year average and last year at 64%. Kansas saw the largest improvement with a 4% increase, while Ohio and Michigan saw the largest decline, down 8 and 10% respectively. All other states were within 4 points either way of unchanged. Corn harvest is reported at 4% complete. Soybeans saw a 1% decrease in condition to 64% good/excellent. This is in line with last year, and ahead of the 59% 5-year average. Spring wheat harvest is reported at 85% complete, while winter wheat is reported at 5% planted.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 21.3 million bushels this morning, an 11.3 million bushel increase when compared to the running 10-week average. Current week export inspections totaled 56.8 million bushels. Soybean sales totaled 19.9 million bushels this week. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 16.6 million bushels. Wheat export inspections were reported at 15.6 million bushels and export sales totaled 11.2 million bushels, sitting at the lower end of USDA estimates this week and falling 10.2 million bushels below the running 10-week average. Milo sales totaled 2.1 million bushels this week and no current export inspections were reported this week. Milo remains 21% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets and 1% below year-to-date inspections.

WEATHER: Sunny and warm for your Friday with highs near 93°F and south-southwest wind 18 – 26 mph with gusts near 39 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear and breezy with a low near 68°F. Saturday with bring a high of 86°F and wind from the south southwest around 17 – 24 mph. There is a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning, mostly before 7am Sunday. Sunday afternoon into early next week has forecasted highs of mid to upper 80s with slight chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday nights.  
 

Trivia Answers

1. Sumo Wrestling

2. BackRub