Weekly Market Update 9/4/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What golfer holds the record for the most major championship wins?

2. How many times does the heart beat per day on average?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

Markets have continued to grind away, with harvest knocking on the door. The December Corn contract closed the month of August up 6 cents, after a summertime slide of over 30 cents and has started September with some small gains. Corn exports have remained at the pace needed to hit USDA estimates, with Mexico and Japan being the biggest players. The biggest question on the horizon is the size of the U.S. crop, with the September WASDE and the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports both on tap this month. Soybeans are the major story this week, with the November contract trading down to post-August USDA report lows overnight. Brazil is set to once again plant record soybean acres starting later this month, and has supplied China with enough old crop beans that they have largely been able to avoid U.S. soybeans so far. Every day that we don’t see Chinese buying adds bushels to the soybean carryout – and remember, China imports nearly three-fifths of all soybeans traded on international markets. Wheat has largely been a follower of the weakness in row crop markets, with further pressure by large Australian and Black Sea crop estimates. Wheat volatility is at its lowest volatility levels in five years.

Local basis is also taking a beating for both corn and milo. With a huge crop around the corner, many end users have most of their needs covered through the end of the year and, if they will buy something, have backed off their bids drastically. The possibility of milo trading into an export market is also feeling further away as Chinese trade talks keep sliding back on the calendar. As a result of a weaker sales market, elevator bids have followed suit. Overall, it’s hard to paint an exciting picture for the market in the near term.

Crop Progress: Corn conditions continue to decrease, nationally down 2 points from the previous week at 69% good to excellent. Kansas corn has stayed even at 59% good to excellent with 55% of the crop reaching maturity. Kansas milo good to excellent ratings are up 2 points at 60% and up 1 point at 64% nationally. 49% of milo is coloring while just 12% has reached maturity. Soybeans in Kansas have also stayed even at 66% good to excellent, however the national estimate has dropped to 65%, down 4 points. Nearly 85% of soybeans are setting pods and 7% are dropping leaves.

Export Inspections: Short week means the Export Sales Report will come out tomorrow. Export inspections were good across the board. Corn had another solid week of shipments at 55.4 million bushels, up from last week at 52.7 million bushels and ahead of the 10-week average of 53.1 million. Shipments remain at a strong pace, and Mexico continues to top the destination chart. Soybeans were up 3 million bushels from last week at 17.4 million bushels inspected for export, staying right in line with the pace needed to hit the current USDA estimate. Vietnam and Mexico were the two biggest destinations. 9.3 million bushels of HRW shipped, right in line with the previous week and ahead of the 10-week average. HRW is 6% ahead of the pace needed to hit USDA estimates, with Mexico the largest destination this week for this commodity as well. 2.4 million bushels of milo were inspected for export this week, headed to Spain and Ethiopia. Generally speaking, milo shipments continue to disappoint and are 7% behind the pace needed to hit an already low USDA estimate.

Weather 

Skies today are forecasted to be sunny with a high near 88°F, however clouds and fog have lingered most of the day. Tonight, clouds will increase, leading into a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday before 1pm. Friday will stay mostly cloudy with a high near 63°F. Friday night lows will reach down to 46°F. Weekend highs will be in the low to mid 70s with plenty of sunshine. Next week heats up gradually with daily highs of 80°F Monday, 87°F Tuesday, and back up to 90°F on Wednesday.

Trivia Answers

1. Jack Nicklaus

2. 100,000