Weekly Market Update 4/16/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. M&M’S Fruit Chews would eventually become what popular candy?

2. The “Hollywood” sign originally spelled out what word? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

 MARKET UPDATE: May corn futures were down 2 ¾-cents today to close at a settlement price of $4.4850. December corn futures settled down 1 ½-cents today, closing at $4.7675. Grain markets saw mixed action overnight amid ongoing developments in the Middle East. Crude oil jumped overnight on the continued concerns over global supplies, alongside ongoing talks around a possible extension of the current ceasefire agreement. In the corn market, attentions have turned to dry weather conditions persisting across the western portion of the Corn Belt. Strong demand continues to underpin corn, offsetting some of the markets lingering bearish fundamentals. Despite concerns over a record 2025 harvest, some speculators remain willing to maintain net-long positions.

May soybean futures were down 3 ¼-cents today, closing at a settlement price of $11.6375. November soybean futures were up 1 ½-cents to a settlement price of $11.56. Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, driven largely by fund position buying and supported by positive crush numbers. However that strength proved short-lived, with the market losing momentum during the overnight session as the rally faded. Underlying optimism remains tied to strong crush demand and hopes that the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi next month could spur additional Chinese purchases.

May wheat futures were up 17 ¼-cents today, closing at a settlement price of $6.4275. Hard red winter wheat carried the wheat complex higher overnight with concerns that persistent drought across the Plains could negatively impact yield performance. Key production areas, including the TX Panhandle and western KS continue to miss out on meaningful rainfall. Long range forecasts looking into late April are offering some optimism for improved chances of precipitation.

CROP PROGRESS REPORT: Planters in Kansas are slowly beginning to roll as 9% of the corn crop has been planted, matching the five-year average, but just below last year. Soybean planting has barely begun at 2% planted as beans are going in the ground about a week ahead of last year. Kansas winter wheat conditions are at 32% good to excellent, a 6% decline from last week; a trend that will probably continue if the current weather forecasts hold. According to USDA, no Kansas winter wheat has headed yet as just 11% of the nation's wheat has headed.

NOPA CRUSH REPORT: As of yesterday, NOPA reported a crush of 226.2 million bushels, which is below the average trade estimate of 230.0 million bushels. However, this figure is an increase from 208.8 million bushels last month and 194.5 million bushels last year, marking a record for the month. Cumulative crush from September to March has reached 1,523 million bushels, which is 173 million bushels ahead of last year's pace—almost 13% higher than last year, while the USDA is anticipating a total year-over-year increase of 6.75%. For soybean oil stocks, the total is 2,039 million pounds, which is lower than even the most bullish trade estimates and down from 2,080 million pounds last month. However, it remains significantly above the 1,498 million pounds recorded a year ago. Domestic use in March reached a record high of 2,685 million pounds. In terms of soybean meal production, it was reported at 5.397 million short tons, slightly surpassing the previous record set in October for any month. The meal yield also hit a record of 47.73 pounds, compared to 47.53 pounds last month and 47.56 pounds last year. In summary, soybeans and SBO experienced a slight bounce following the NOPA release, largely driven by a positive bean oil stocks figure, suggesting significant usage. While the March soybean crush fell short of expectations, the pace for 2025/26 remains exceptionally strong, far exceeding the USDA estimate, even after they raised that figure in the April supply and demand report.

EXPORTS: Corn export inspections were solid this past week, with 70.2 million bushels shipped. While this figure is down from the previous week, it remains above average, and cumulative shipments are still on pace to meet estimates for the marketing year, despite a slight decline in the margin. Wheat inspections totaled 11.8 million bushels last week, primarily due to railcar shipments to Mexico, along with Pacific Northwest (PNW) shipments to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Panama. Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat accounted for about half of shipments to Mexico and was included on combined vessels bound for Nicaragua, Taiwan, and Panama. Additionally, Milo joined the party, showing 8.0 million bushels. Corn sales were respectable this week, up from LW within the mid-range of estimates. Sold 55.1 million bushels, with Japan, South Korea, and Mexico as the top buyers. Mexico has ordered about 2.2 million bushels of the new crop. Cumulative sales are 28.2 million bushels ahead of the target, but new crop sales have slowed compared to last year, marking the lowest pace in five years. The wheat complex saw a total of 100k MT for 25/26, with Nigeria and Vietnam as the leading buyers, and new-crop sales totaled 131k MT. Milo has no NC sales but sold 3.3 mln bu in the current week.

WEATHER: Another sunny and windy day as highs are expected to reach 84°F, with increasing clouds and wind this evening. Tomorrow is cooler with a high of 71°F as the wind continues. Friday night lows are forecasted to dip down to 29°F with wind gusts as high as 38 mph, warranting a freeze watch for the early morning. Highs Saturday are near 64°F with overnight lows near 30°F. Temperatures continue to warm back up Sunday with a high of 78°F. Early next week continues the warm pattern with highs in the mid-80s Monday and Tuesday, and a high of 90°F Wednesday afternoon.

Trivia Answers

1.  Starburst

2. Hollywoodland