Weekly Market Update 4/23/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Who was the first president to visit all 50 states?

2. What is the largest volcano on earth? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

 MARKETS: The wheat market has surged this week due to increased fund buying amid drought concerns in hard red winter regions and missed rainfall. With few natural sellers, prices have risen significantly, though rapid declines could occur if funds take profits. Weather forecasts suggest possible rain in the next week, but short-term conditions remain challenging, keeping prices firm unless funds liquidate or rain benefits struggling areas. The milo market is quiet as buyers assess their options. However, China has been active in exports over the past few weeks, securing an additional three cargoes last week. Bids and offers in the Gulf remain widely spread. Corn and soybeans have managed to decouple from fluctuations in crude oil prices as the conflict in Iran continues to dominate the news. Soybean oil reached contract highs this week, but soybean prices did not follow suit. Meanwhile, favorable rains across the Corn Belt have not raised major concerns about planting delays, and progress appears to be on track. Overall, while headline news continues to influence the grain markets, recent trends indicate that fundamental factors also play a significant role in market direction.

INTEREST RATE MARKET: On Monday, Kevin Warsh made comments reflecting a market sensitive to energy-driven inflation. He advocates for a Federal Reserve that prioritizes real-time decision-making over mere forecasts, believing this approach enhances economic stability. Warsh emphasizes the importance of actual data rather than predictions, which may cause market fluctuations but ultimately lead to better strategies. He is optimistic about early signs of stability in inflation and notes positive trends, expressing confidence that we are nearing full employment as many job-seeking Americans are finding work. However, the ongoing conflict in Iran continues to generate headlines that disrupt market stability. Currently, oil prices are significantly influencing interest rates. Inflation figures from March rose primarily due to increased energy costs, and the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that developments in the Middle East are injecting new uncertainty into the economic outlook. The longer this conflict lasts, the greater the risk that rising fuel prices will impact various aspects of daily life, including shipping, food, travel, and household expenses. This creates a complex environment that the market must navigate daily. The key question remains whether the inflation problem will lead to higher interest rates for an extended period or if it is merely a temporary situation.

CROP PROGRESS REPORT: Another bleak crop progress report as lack of rains continue to deplete crop and planting conditions. 17% of Kansas corn has been planted, nearly doubling from last week, but behind nearly 8% from last year. 3% of the crop has emerged, which is right at Kansas’ five-year average for April 20^th. Soybean planting continues at 7% planted, ahead of last year’s 4% planted at this time. Winter wheat is 15% headed, well above last year and the five-year average. Conditions continue to deteriorate as fair ratings have dropped to 35% and poor to very poor ratings have dropped 9% to 41%.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 51.8 million bushels this week – 3.5 million bushels below the running 10-week average and in-line with current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 17.3 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 65.7 million bushels, up 1.8 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 13.4 million bushels, with 0.2 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 27.5 million bushels – falling below the running 10-week average, but still on the upper-end of current trade estimates. All O/C wheat export sales totaled 4.7 million bushels this week, in addition to 0.3 million bushels of N/C sales. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 19.0 million bushels – 6.1 million bushels above upper-end trade estimates. Milo export sales totaled 7.6 million bushels this week and export inspections totaled 8.0 million bushels.

WEATHER: Sunny and breezy today with a high of 81°F and north winds 11 to 16 mph. Tonight brings a 20% chance of showers before 8pm. Friday ends the work week with more of the same – breezy with a high of 78°F. Saturday has a high of 76°F with a 30% chance of showers after 1pm with another 30% chance of showers in the overnight after 1am. Showers are likely Sunday with a 60% chance and high of 77°F. Thunderstorms are likely after 4pm, with continuing chances before 1am. Next week looks to be sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s with a lone 30% chance of showers Wednesday afternoon.

Trivia Answers

1. Richard Nixon

2. Mauna Loa