Weekly Market Update 4/30/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What country has the most islands in the world?

2. Who invented the World Wide Web, and when? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

FARM BILL PASSED IN HOUSE: The US House of Representatives passed the farm bill after several months with a vote of 224-200. This is the first farm bill since 2018 to make it this far in Congress. Those in favor of the bill have argued that these are some of the hardest times in the farm economy since the 1980s and the problems that have arose since 2018 are much different that what was enacted in the last farm bill. One of the big-ticket items included in the bill was year-round E15, which was taken out before the vote and will be voted on separately on May 13^th. Because of this, the new farm bill cannot be sent to the Senate until then. Looking ahead, Senators are uncertain on the speed this could move through the senate due to several controversial pieces in the bill as well as disagreements between and within parties. There are a lot of unknowns still with this Farm Bill, but passing the House is a move in a direction that can hopefully bring relief to the agricultural sector.

 INTEREST RATE MARKET UPDATE: The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged this week, holding the target range at 3.50-3.75%. The vote split 8-4, marking the highest number of dissents on a Fed decision since 1992, highlighting some growing pains over the path forward. Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting set a decidedly “higher-for-longer” tone, as several policymakers pushed back against what they view as an embedded “rate-cutting bias” in Fed communications, signaling some discomforts with markets treating cuts as the next inevitable step. Officials made it clear that policy is not on a one-way street and that rate hikes remain on the table should inflation continue to accelerate. With Kevin Warsh poised to assume a larger leadership role in the near future, such dissent could suggest that he may be stepping into a committee with an increasing willingness to challenge assumptions. Treasury yields responded with a bear-flattening move, as inflation data and elevated energy prices forced traders to further downgrade the odds of 2026 rate cuts. Energy-driven inflation tied to ongoing Middle East conflict continues to loom large, limiting the Federal Reserve’s flexibility despite mixed labor market signals.

EXPORT SALES: Exporters sold 62.9 million bushels of U.S. old-crop, bringing their sales to a record pace of 2.980 billion bushels YTD, a 29% increase from last year and surpassing the seasonal target by 142 million bushels. This strong demand is driven by Brazil's plans to increase its use of corn for ethanol. The May 7^th deadline brings uncertainty about whether corn or ethanol will be included in a trade deal with China, which currently does not need corn. Wheat export sales have exceeded the USDA's target by 50 million bushels, but it’s uncertain how much will ship by the May 31 deadline. In contrast, grain sorghum sales are 22 million bushels short of targets. Soybean sales for the marketing year total 1.425 billion bushels, reflecting a 13-year low and an 18% decrease from last year. Current totals are slightly below the pace needed to meet USDA targets, and this deficit may widen due to cheaper Brazilian supplies. Concerns also remain about China's commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans for the next marketing year.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Inspections for corn this week showed that 64.7 million bushels were shipped, below the 10-week average and down from the previous week. However, this amount still passes the seasonal pace required to meet the USDA's projections. The top three importing countries for corn remain Mexico, Japan, and South Korea. For soybeans, 23.1 million bushels were shipped, landing on the lower end of estimates but still on track. Milo shipments totaled 7.1 million bushels, down from 8.0 million the week prior, with China as the largest importer. In the wheat complex, a total of 13.4 million bushels were shipped, with 2.5 million bushels of hard red winter wheat going to Mexico and Japan.



WEATHER: Though it hasn’t been much, there has at least been enough moisture to know it still exists! Rain chances continue through this afternoon, nearly 60% mainly after 1pm with highs near 59°F. Tonight, lows are forecast at 38°F with a 40% chance of rain before 5am. Friday’s high of 63°F brings a 30% chance of showers before lowering to 20% Friday night. Sunshine and warmer temperatures return Saturday with a high of 71°F. The warming trend continues with highs in the low 80s on Sunday and Monday. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday night and continue through Wednesday with daily highs near 70°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Sweden, over 220,000

2. Tim Berners-Lee, 1990