GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > August 2026 > Weekly Market Update 8-20-2026

Weekly Market Update 8/20/2026

Aug 20, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

What was the first fruit eaten on the Moon?
Which sport uses the terms “love” and “deuce”?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKETS UPDATE: Again, flooded social media posts from Pro Farmer showed lower average CORN yield samples in Illinois and District 1 in Iowa compared to USDA estimates. The market reacted to these lower numbers, pushing corn values to new contract highs for CZ, but struggled to hold them. Doubts emerged about the reliability of Pro Farmer's data versus USDA's final estimates, creating a potential "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. Weather forecasts predict beneficial conditions for most of the Midwest, with above-normal corn test weights expected due to cooler temperatures. Export sales data were stable, with 233 tmt for the old crop year and 816 tmt for the new crop year. Ukraine's agricultural exports remain significantly constrained, with only 1.5 mmt expected to ship in August due to ongoing trade flow issues. Ukraine has a large corn surplus that faces export challenges. WHEAT sales showed a slight uptick in business that may or may not be tied to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Most buyers were on the normal user list and for normal quantities; ergo, the destinations left without shipments are still sitting on their hands and are now willing to pay $100/mt over Russian FOB to get US HRW or SRW at $60/mt over Russian FOB. Even with elevated sales in today's report, commitments remain 3.7 mmt (135 mbu) behind last year. Commitment pace is behind the USDA’s projections.

PRO FARMER CROP TOUR 2026: Involving over 100 scouts sampling more than 2,000 corn and soybean fields in August across seven states. This provides an independent, disciplined assessment of the U.S. crop's size before harvest. The 2026 Pro Farmer crop tour is wrapping up its final day of scouting across the Corn Belt, revealing deeply divided regions hit by weather extremes—ranging from drought and heat stress in the west to excess moisture, mud, and disease building in the east. The tour highlighted stark contrasts over the last three days. South Dakota experienced drought affecting corn yields, while soybeans remained resilient. Ohio dealt with muddy fields and uneven crop maturity. Indiana's fields showed immature corn and uneven soybeans, while Nebraska's dryland crops lagged because of moisture deficits. Illinois crops were underwhelming, with low ear counts, while Western Iowa corn showed strong potential, though issues like southern corn leaf blight and brown stem rot were noted in soybeans.

CROP PROGRESS: The heat once again continues to take its toll on fall crops. Kansas corn has dropped from 47% to 42% good to excellent and down to 60% good to excellent nationally. Kansas soybean ratings have dropped to 54% good to excellent and 61% in the nation. Twenty-seven percent of milo in Kansas is rated good to excellent, down 10% from the prior week. About 94% of Kansas corn is silking, 78% in the dough stage, and 41% beginning to dent, remaining in-line with the previous year and 5-year average. Soybeans across the state are 88% bloomed, with 67% setting pods. Milo development started to fall behind last year with 62% headed, versus 70% last year. Twenty percent of the state’s milo is coloring, in-line with last year’s average currently.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 9.2 million bushels this week – falling 7.0 million bushels below last week’s values and landing in-line with current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 32.1 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 75.2 million bushels, up 5.9 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 3.1 million bushels, with 63.3 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 9.9 million bushels – landing below the running 10-week average and below current week trade estimates. All wheat export sales totaled 14.5 million bushels this week. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 18.1 million bushels – in-line with current trade estimates. Milo export sales were reported this week at 0.3 million bushels, with an additional 0.5 million bushels of N/C crop sold. No export inspections were reported this week, down 2.2 million bushels from the week prior.

WEATHER: Hot and partly cloudy today, with temperatures around 95°F to 100°F. With south-southeast winds and a low of about 65°F to 68°F tonight under mostly clear skies, the rest of the week and weekend will be very hot and mostly sunny, with daytime highs from 95°F to 105°F and nighttime lows in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Rain chances remain low (mostly under 10-20%) through the weekend.