Weekly Market Update 8/6/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. How many states does the Appalachian Trail cross?

2. What identity document is required to travel to different countries around the world?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

 MARKETS: Stocks are mixed at midday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones near all-time highs. The VIX has dropped to a four-week low, showing reduced market volatility amid positive U.S. economic data. The dollar is slightly up, trading at 99.9, while Treasuries have eased from recent peaks. Crude oil prices have risen, with WTI up 2.3% and Brent up 2.4%. In the agriculture sector, the wheat complex is down, while corn and soybeans show small gains; livestock prices are generally lower. U.S. unit labor costs increased by only 1.3% in Q2, below the expected 2.1%, with Q1 revised downward. Labor productivity rose by 1.4%, exceeding expectations. This suggests better growth and potentially lower inflation pressures, benefiting corporate margins but indicating continued softness in household incomes that may affect consumption in the future. Markets are inclined to react positively to dovish surprises as rate expectations increase through 2026.

E.U. CORN CROP: Amid ongoing heat stress and drought, Expana today cut its 2026/27 E.U. corn production estimate to 49.1 MMT, a 4.6 MMT cut from its previous estimate. This follows a similar move from Argus yesterday, which cut its estimate to 48.0 MMT, with the French crop specifically falling to 6.9 MMT, a 50-year low. Much of the focus to this point in the growing season has centered on France, the E.U.’s traditional top corn producer, but southeastern Europe has also dried out notably over the last month, with forecasts calling for more chances of record heat in the region over the next 10 days. USDA cut its E.U. corn production estimate to 53.78 million metric tons on the July WASDE, but we would expect to see them continuing to move that estimate lower on next week’s report, and potentially more in the months ahead depending on how aggressive they get on the August WASDE. This should also translate to an uptick in expected E.U. corn import demand, which should keep additional support under U.S. corn exports in the year ahead, especially if Black Sea risks remain.  

CROP PROGRESS: The heat continues to wreak havoc on fall crops as conditions continue to deteriorate amid lack of meaningful rainfall. Kansas corn has dropped from 54% to 46% good to excellent and down to 61% good to excellent nationally. State soybean ratings have dropped to 59% good to excellent and 63% in the nation. Only 39% of milo in Kansas is rated good to excellent, down 8% from the prior week. Despite conditions, the stressed crops press on as nearly 83% of Kansas corn is silking, 56% in the dough stage, and 5% beginning to dent, with each of these in line with the previous year and 5-year average. Soybeans are similar as 71% of the crop is blooming, and 45% setting pods. Milo development is ahead of last year with 36% headed and 14% already coloring.

EXPORTS: Exporters reported new crop soybean sales of 33.2 million bushels for the week ending July 30th, near the five-year average. Old crop soybean sales dropped to a marketing year low of 1.2 million bushels, but cumulative sales remain above USDA targets. New crop soybean sales are at 307.65 million bushels, the highest in four years, driven by strong Chinese demand. Old crop corn sales fell to 4.6 million bushels, also a marketing year low, but cumulative sales of 3.429 billion bushels exceed USDA targets. New crop corn sales reached 40.4 million bushels. All wheat sales for the 2026/27 season increased to 10.9 million bushels, with the Philippines as a key destination. However, cumulative wheat sales are down nearly 30% from last year, reflecting a 23% expected drop in production. Concerns in the wheat market focus on potential future shifts in demand due to ongoing issues in the Black Sea region.


WEATHER: Cooler temps have been welcomed this week, but unfortunately, we are heating back up with a high today of 95°F. Temperatures continue to climb Friday at 98°F before hitting triple digits again this weekend through Tuesday, with highs nearing 104°F.  Tuesday brings a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms before temps back off slightly Wednesday with a high near 96°F.

Trivia Answers

1.  14

2. A Passport