Weekly Market Update 2/19/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  Which is the only sea without any coastlines?

2. How many elements are in the periodic table?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

2026 USDA GRAINS AND OILSEEDS OUTLOOK: The USDA has released their first projections for 2026 crops, assuming normal weather conditions. Across the board, total planted acres have decreased about 1%, amounting to 224 million acres to be planted this year. Corn acres are down roughly 4 million acres at 94 million acres. Wheat acres are down just .3 million acres to 45 million acres, while soybean acres up to 85 million acres, an increase of 3.8 million acres.

The corn crop has been reduced for production, demand, and ending stocks. Total production is estimated at 15.8 billion bushels, while yield expectations are near 183 bushels per acre. Though beginning stocks are up from last year, the total estimated corn supply of 17.9 billion bushels is below last year. Total demand for is expected to decrease approximately 2% from the prior year.  Ending stocks are down 290 million bushels, yet higher than the 5 year average. Season-average corn prices look to be about $4.20 per bushel, up 10 cents.

Soybeans expect to increase for 2026 with higher beginning stocks and increased production. Yields are estimated to average 53 bushels per acre with total production forecasted at 4.45 billion bushels. Exports are forecasted to increase to 1.7 billion bushels, however, will continue to decline in the global market, thanks to Brazil’s record crop. Ending stocks will remain very close to last year. Soybean prices are just higher than last year, looking to average $10.30 per bushel.

Wheat projections are mostly lower through most categories. Total wheat production is forecasted to be 6% below last year at 1,860 million bushels. All-wheat yield is down to 50.8 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks are up to 931 million bushels, which are expected to be offset by the smaller crop, reducing total supplies to 2,911 million bushels. Domestic wheat use is mostly unchanged while exports are lower, near 850 million bushels. All things considered, ending stocks are projected to be the highest in seven years at 933 million bushels. Average wheat prices are estimated higher at $5.00 per bushel.

NOPA CRUSH REPORT: The recent crush numbers are impressive at 221.6 million bushels, exceeding trade estimates by over 3 million bushels! This represents a good increase from last January’s record high of 200.4 million bushels. Cumulatively, from September to January, we’ve hit 1088 million bushels—an increase of 111 million bushels compared to last year, representing year-over-year growth of more than 11%! In contrast, the USDA's projection of a 5% gain seems conservative given these strong results. Furthermore, soybean oil stocks have surged to 1900 million pounds, significantly above the average trade estimate of 1710 million pounds, and this figure has outpaced the entire trade range, interestingly enough. This marks a notable rise from last month’s 1640 million pounds and January’s 1270 million pounds last year. While soybean meal production has dipped slightly to 5.262 million short tons from 5.356 million short tons, it's still impressively above last January's 4.752 million tons. The bean oil yield is 11.62 pounds, which, while lower than December's figures, still shows resilience. At the end of the day, market responses showed mixed feelings: bearish sentiment for oil and bullish sentiment for soybean meal. Nonetheless, soybean prices remained steady with some gains during recent sessions. Overall, the U.S. soybean crush continues to thrive, leaving room for optimism about the future!

EXPORTS: This week, we shipped an impressive 58.8 million bushels of corn—surpassing our initial estimates. While it's a tad lower than last week’s shipments, we’re still in great shape, with about 328.5 million bushels ahead of the USDA's target. With 28 weeks left in the marketing year, there’s plenty of time to adapt, especially as South American bushels start entering the market. The wheat market slowed, with Japan loadings from the PNW leading the list. HRW loaded for Japan 2.3 million bushels, and Mexico took 0.8 million bushels. Milo shipped to China through the Gulf, 9.5 million bushels, net change of 4.6 million from the previous week. Export sales will be on Friday, due to the holiday.

WEATHER: Cooler weather returns to end the work week with a high today of 43°F and more wind. Tonight drops to 16°F with decreasing winds. Friday’s high of 43°F brings a 40% chance of snow showers after 4pm. Snow shower chances continue until midnight. Saturday and Sunday look to be sunny with highs in the low 50s. Early next week warms up again with sunshine and highs approaching 70°.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Sargasso Sea

2. 118