Weekly Market Update 1/15/2026
|
|
Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
-
What is the capital of Switzerland?
-
Which country has the world’s longest coastline?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
MARKET UPDATE: March corn futures were down 1 ¾-cents to a settlement price of $4.2025 at the close today. After Monday’s nosedive to five-month lows, the overnight trading session offered some corrective action. As markets finally begin to simmer down after the USDA supply and demand report, focuses have shifted to weekly export sales this week, many hoping that the decline in price this week could drum up some buying interest from corn importers. Ethanol production was at an all-time high last week – nationwide ethanol stocks up 3.5% last week, compared to 2.1% at this time last year. Monday’s bearish supply outlook is likely to limit any market rally possibilities for the near future. March soybean futures were up 10 ½-cents today to $10.53. Much like corn, the USDA report on Monday sent March soybean futures to a 2.5-month low at $10.3775. Markets have been able to maintain some support from recent Chinese purchases. This week’s exports sales are likely to confirm the additional purchase of US soybeans by China yet again pushing them closer to the 12 MMT target. Traders and analysts anticipate a record domestic crush pace that will continue into 2026 that could further maintain some market support for the near term. However, Brazilian soybean production is expected to have another record-breaking crop as harvest continues to progress forward. March wheat futures were down 5-cents to $5.1725 at the close. Futures have been able to see some gains after the bearish corn supply outlook was released Monday, but strong export competition and ample global supplies will continue to limit upside potential. Recent weeks have shown a dip in US wheat exports and some anticipate we may continue to see the same results continued throughout the early part of 2026 - keep reading to learn more.
EXPORTS: For the week ending 1/8/26, export sales of corn, soybeans, and wheat have all fallen within or above trade estimates. Corn sales are up from last week at 44.9 million bushels, still below the 10-week average of 61.1 million bushels. Despite this, corn is still 5% above the pace needed to meet USDA totals. Largest corn buyers this week include Mexico and Japan. Soybean sales are above the top end of trade estimates by nearly 10 million bushels and 75.8 million bushels. This is also well above the 10-week average of 46.4 million bushels. However, soybeans are still 10% behind pace to reach USDA estimates. Top soybean buyers include China and Mexico. Wheat sales fall within expectations at 5.7 million bushels, but less than half of the current 10-week average. Wheat is 6% above pace needed to reach the USDA target, with most wheat exports going to Mexico. Milo sales are up from last week at 11.4 million bushels, but 10% behind the pace needed. China and Mexico were the leading milo buyers last week.
NOPA CRUSH REPORT: December soybean crush reached 225.0 million bushels, closely aligning with the average trade estimate of 224.8 million. This figure represents a 4.2% increase from November and sets a new all-time high for the month. It is also the second largest monthly crush on record, just behind October's total of 227.65 million bushels. Cumulatively, the crush for the first four months of the ’25/’26 marketing year amounts to 866.5 million bushels, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year. The USDA currently anticipates a 5.1% year-over-year increase, suggesting further upward revisions if this strong pace continues. A key factor in this trend will be policy support. The market may soon gain greater clarity on this front, as Reuters reported that the EPA plans to submit its final proposal to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review by the end of this month. Finalized rulings are expected by early March. In the meantime, soybean oil stocks totaled 1,642 million pounds, up from 1,513 million in November but still below the average analyst estimate of 1,686 million. SBM production: 5.356 million short tons, well above 5.109 million last month and 4.900 million last year, and the second-highest monthly figure on record, behind October. Meal yield of 47.61 lbs. is well above last month and last year.
WEATHER: Skies today are clear and sunny with highs near 66°F. Lows tonight reach 27°F with increasing clouds and wind, with gusts near 26mph. Friday looks to be sunny and windy with highs in the low 40s and wind 29-34 in the afternoon with gusts near 55mph. Friday’s conditions warrant High Wind and Red Flag warnings for the day. Friday night continues to be blustery with lows near 19°F and wind gusts near 31mph. Saturday brings lower highs, near 33°F, and more wind. Wind will decrease overnight while temperatures drop as low as 12°F. Warm weather returns briefly Sunday with highs in the upper 50s before cooling back off Monday near 39°F. Next week looks to be sunny with highs in the 50s.
|
|
|
Trivia Answers
-
Bern
- Canada