Weekly Market Update 1/29/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What was the first film to release a soundtrack?

2. Which university did Microsoft founder Bill Gates drop out of?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: March corn futures were up ¾-cent to a settlement price of $4.3075 at the close today. Few major headlines across the grain markets this week have offered little in terms of fresh excitement. Fund short coverings have driven most of the price movement seen this week versus any new fundamental developments. A US dollar index nearing a four-year low has added support to corn futures, the theory that a weaker dollar could help stimulate export demand. Additional support has come from strength in outside markets such as crude oil and metals, along with renewed optimism tied to Trump’s support of E15 gasoline. 

March soybean futures were down 2 ¾-cents today to $10.7225. The soybean complex was able to find some support this week in the hope that higher federally mandated biofuel blending requirements could boost soybean oil demand. However, overall fundamentals remain mixed, with US soybean exports running roughly 22% behind this time last year. While recent Chinese purchases offered near-term support, increasing South American supplies have weighed on the global balance sheet, offering cheaper alternatives. As a result, Chinese buyers have shifted more of their demand towards South American soybeans.

March wheat futures were up 4 ¾ cents to $5.47 at the close. Like corn, wheat futures posted gains overnight on the expectation that continued weakness in the US dollar could help improve export competitiveness. A round of speculative short coverings this week has also contributed to the upward price movement. Ample global supplies remain a bearish influence in the market, suggesting that rallies may struggle to maintain momentum. Added uncertainty surrounds the impact of last weekend’s ice and freezing temperatures on the growing crop, as producers across the US continue to navigate volatile grain markets.

TRUMP SUPPORTS YEAR-ROUND E15: At a rally in Iowa earlier this week, President Trump voiced support for ongoing congressional efforts to allow year-round sales of E15 in U.S. markets. Under current law, E15 is not permitted during the summer months due to a regulatory loophole in the Clean Air Act, which allows E10 but not E15. Trump’s comments add pressure on lawmakers as Republicans navigate what has become a divisive issue within the party, attempting to balance the interests of agriculture with those of the oil and gas industry. USDA currently estimates that 5.6 billion bushels of corn will be used for ethanol in the 2025/26 marketing year, representing roughly one-third of total U.S. corn production. Farm groups largely support year-round E15 sales due to the potential boost to domestic corn demand, particularly in today’s lower-price market environment. Last week, the House removed ethanol-related language from a funding bill, instead announcing plans to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council. The council is intended to develop solutions that work for both farmers and refiners, with a goal of proposing legislation for congressional consideration by the end of February.

FERTILIZER PRICE COLLUSION: In 2024, fertilizer companies Nutrien and Mosaic accounted for over 90% of potash and phosphate fertilizer production in North America. Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden took aim at the companies, accusing them of colluding to limit supply, thus allowing them to elevate prices. In a recent webinar, Vaden said that, “This administration is going to do everything it can to ensure that farmers have the fertilizer they need, at a price that they can pay.” He even considered the two companies’ relationship a duopoly. A new fertilizer mine is set to open in Saskatchewan, Canada, which with exports to the U.S., could potentially break up the duopoly power of Nutrien and Mosaic. The Trump administration is watching closely for any signs of interference from the two colluding companies. Vaden assured farmers and other companies that the administration will protect “any other new market participant that wants to come in, provide new fertilizer supply, and break up the cute little game that Mosaic and Nutrien have been playing for the last several years.” (Oliver Ward, Agri-Pulse)

EXPORTS: Corn inspections have remained steady over the past couple of weeks, with 59.5 million bushels shipped this past week. Overall shipments continue to exceed the pace needed to meet current USDA estimates. However, the gap in shipments between this week and the same period last year is narrowing, particularly after a strong start to the marketing year. The usual major destinations for shipments were once again Mexico, Japan, Spain, and Colombia, which ranked as the top four. Wheat Export inspections meh but held pace with recent weeks, with WW and HRS to S. Korea. HRW loaded for Japan and Mexico, with Gulf shipments to Nigeria and Haiti. Corn sales this morning are falling back closer in line with historical averages, with 64.9 million bushels sold. With no new crop sales and the usual buyers, the wheat complex met expectations at 558k MT, led by Japan, Mexico, and Nigeria. HRW led classes with significant pieces of Japan and Mexico business, plus a combo boat with SRW booked and loaded for Nigeria last week. Milo is bringing in 9.1 million bushels in sales this week, down from last week’s large purchase, although this is better than the 10-week average.

WEATHER: Skies today are cloudy with a high near 39°F and north winds around 10mph. Clouds will clear off tonight with lows around 21°F. Friday will be mostly sunny with a high of 42°F, before the bitter cold comes back overnight, near 10°F. Friday evening brings a 20% chance of snow showers before midnight. Saturday’s high of 35°F is the last cold day before warming up into the mid 50s Sunday and Monday. Slight snow chances return Tuesday, near 20%.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Snow White ( in1944)

2. Harvard