Weekly Market Update 7/16/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What part of ruminant anatomy is called “the butcher’s bible” in slang terms?

2. Who wrote the book, “To Kill a Mockingbird?”

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

RUSSIA/UKRAINE STRIKES DRIVE WHEAT MARKET: Wheat markets have been sharply higher the last couple days, mostly due to ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. Last Friday, it was reported that the Kerch Strait closed from Ukrainian strikes, sending global wheat markets up; MATIF wheat was up 8 euros. Sunday night, wheat rallied at the open, but sold off into the morning session, as closures were more of a rumor than a fact. Ukrainian attacks have since moved into the Black Sea impacting maritime traffic dramatically. September KC wheat flew out of the gates yesterday, +42 cents, nearly limiting up. Earlier today prices rose to 7.33, but have since started to trickle back down near the 7.14 range. Black Sea strikes have continued, but they were not as large as the beginning of the week. Some have reported that Ukraine has lost nearly a third of their export capacity which is significant considering Russia and Ukraine combined produce about 30% of global wheat. There are still many uncertainties surrounding the situation, leaving plenty of room for risk in the coming trading sessions.

NOPA CRUSH REPORT: After the NOPA release, soybean oil prices rose significantly, while soybeans and meal took longer to respond. This delay suggests that the USDA has even more adjustments to make to its 2025/26 crush figure, which continues to rise. The total crush for the month was 214.3 million bushels, surpassing the average trade estimate by over ten million bushels and exceeding even the most optimistic prediction by 2.5 million bushels. This figure is an increase from 208.8 million bushels last month and up from 185.3 million bushels in June of last year, which was already a record for that month. As of June, the cumulative crush from September to June totals 2.158 billion bushels, running 12.5% ahead of last year's ten-month pace. Meanwhile, the USDA is forecasting only an 8.4% increase in total crush year-over-year for the 2025/26 season. SBO Stocks 1501 million pounds, over 150 million below the average trade guess, and over 100 million below even the most bullish estimate. Implied domestic oil use of 2744 million pounds is a massive record figure. As for SBM production, 5.121 million short tons, up from 4.968 million ST in May and 4.407 million ST last June (the previous record for the month); meal yield of 47.78 pounds is a record figure for any month.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn inspections were softer than the week prior at 60.6 million bu shipped, but still held the above pace to meet estimates trend with 7 weeks left in the marketing year. Usual players again this week with Mexico taking the majority of shipments, followed by Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea. Wheat posted a nice recovery from the previous week at 13.7million, getting back on track with the recent pace and now lagging the USDA pace by only 1%. Top destinations included Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, and Taiwan. Beans shipped 15.4 million, still between estimates, down from the prior week. Nothing to report for milo. This morning's corn sales didn't meet our expectations, but it's understandable, as buyers are taking a breather after the recent price rally. Let’s stay focused on the opportunities ahead for NC sales. Wheat sales were lackluster at 235k MT, with Japan, Mexico, Jamaica, and Peru leading. Sales by class showed HRW 21k, SRW 75k, HRS 77k, and WW 63k MT. Bean sales were nothing to write home about: 6.9 mil OC, 65.0 Mil NC; however, all were in range, but at the low end or probing the bottom. Mixed trading today with bulls sniffing about for a reason to run.



WEATHER: Hot and sunny is the story again for the coming week. Highs today are near 91°F with a slight breeze. Similar patterns continue to close out the work week and into the weekend with highs in the low 90s and overnight lows near 67°F. Hotter temperatures to start next week with a high of 99°F on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday have highs near 96°F with a 20% of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night.

Trivia Answers

1.  Omasum

2. Harper Lee