Weekly Market Update 7/2/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What city was the first capital of the U.S.?

2. When was the Declaration of Independence signed?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

MARKET UPDATE: September corn futures were up ¼-cent today to close at a settlement price of $4.23. December corn futures settled down ¾-cent today, closing at $4.4150. Corn futures continued to build on this week’s momentum overnight as traders continued to digest the implications of the latest USDA stocks report. Tighter than expected quarterly stocks offered reassurance after the increase in planted acreage seen earlier this year and may continue to provide some underlying market support. Looking ahead, weather will increasingly take center stage, as forecasts call for above-normal temperatures through mid-July across key growing regions. While the current outlook has not raised major production concerns, an extended stretch of heat at this point in the growing season could shift markets and pressure expectations for crop development.  

September soybean futures were up ½-cent today, closing at a settlement price of $11.3625. November soybean futures were down 1 ½-cents to a settlement price of $11.4775. Soybean futures found support from a sharp uptick in soybean meal markets, extending an upward seeing in the broader complex overnight. Like corn, the market remains focused on weather conditions across the Midwest as traders assess potential impacts on crop development. Ongoing chatter surrounding Chinese interest in US soybeans has helped underpin sentiment. For the near term, price direction will likely be driven by a combination of weather forecasts and any signs of additional Chinese purchase interest/activity.

September wheat futures were up 3 ½-cents today, closing at a settlement price of $6.3850. Wheat futures remain supported by the bullish stocks and acreage data released on Tuesday, which pointed to a significant reduction in US wheat supplies for the coming marketing year. Severe drought across the Southern Plains has sharply reduced yield potential and contributed to a higher-than-normal number of abandoned acres. Adding to the supportive outlook, US wheat plantings are down 5.7% from 2025 levels. At the same time, total wheat acreage is projected to be the lowest recorded since 1919, reinforcing concerns about future supply availability.

USDA FERTILIZER INVESTMENT: Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Ag released a new program to boost domestic fertilizer production. $500 million has created the Fertilizer Investment & Expansion for Long-Term Domestic Supply (FIELDS) program to help the US fertilizer supply chain. In theory, this should make fertilizer more affordable for farmers, increase US manufacturing, while strengthening the US supply chain. As we know, relying on foreign fertilizer supply brings much volatility in pricing and supply. Unfortunately, there is no way to see much benefit of this in the short term as these facilities and programs will take years to build and get off the ground, but in the long run this could be a major positive move for the U.S. Ag sector. In yesterday’s announcement, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins noted, “Food security is national security. A strong domestic fertilizer industry is essential to a strong agricultural economy. This investment will help ensure American farmers have access to a secure, reliable, and domestically produced fertilizer supply for generations to come.” 

INTEREST RATE MARKET: Key Points: Payrolls increased by 57,000, which is below expectations but still indicates job growth. The three-month average payroll increase stands at 111,000. Job gains were primarily concentrated in professional and business services (+36,000), social assistance (+25,000), and healthcare (+22,000), while the leisure and hospitality sector lost 61,000 jobs. Overall, the report is considered soft and does not support the idea of imminent rate hikes. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%, but this drop can be misleading. It is attributed to a significant reduction in household employment (507,000) and an increase in the number of people leaving the labor force (+832,000). Thus, the decline in unemployment reflects changes in the job market rather than actual job growth. The market is grappling with conflicting signals: lower oil prices, fading energy inflation, missed payroll expectations, and a decline in labor force participation. Despite these suggestions of easing inflation, the market is still pricing in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes as if inflation is worsening. Wage growth remains mild, with a 0.3% increase in June and a 3.5% increase over the past year, neither of which signals an inflation alarm. In summary, unless inflation consistently remains above 3%, the Fed is likely to approach rate hikes cautiously, given the absence of inflationary pressures despite a reasonably strong labor market.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Monday’s export inspections were strong for corn, with 70.3 mln bu shipped, with little surprise about where it was going. Cumulative shipments continue to hold about 4% (146.6 mln bu) ahead of pace to meet USDA estimates with 9 weeks left in the marketing year. Wheat inspections missed estimates last week at 13.2 MB, led by shipments to S. Korea, Mexico, the Philippines, and Japan. HRW shipments included the Dominican Republic and Haiti from the Gulf, Mexico railcars, and South Korea from the PNW. Winter wheat harvest remains ahead of pace at 48% complete, but lags the average guess of 54%, with KS 72%, OK 98%, TX 82%, CO 32%, and NE 5% complete. Corn sales this week were okay, with 28.8 mln bu sold, keeping sales ahead of pace for the year. The bright spot was new-crop sales, with 30 mln bu sold, continuing to improve over last year's new-crop pace. Totaled 300k MT, sitting at the low end of estimates and a sharp decline from the previous week. Export sales were a big miss for beans on both OC and NC today, but with the holiday, time will tell. Milo sold 1 mil bu; no new crop sales in sight.



WEATHER: Hot and sunny again today with a high near 95°F and a south wind 18-21 mph. Storm chances are back again this evening with a 20% chance before 8 pm. Hotter tomorrow with a high of 100°F and breezy with a 20% chance of showers late Friday night. Independence Day will be a warm one with a high of 98°F with another 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Sunday and into next week look to be sunny  and clear with highs in the low-to-mid 90s and a 20% chance of thunderstorms Monday night.

Trivia Answers

1. Philadelphia.

2. 1776.