GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > July 2026 > Weekly Market Update 7-30-2026

Weekly Market Update 7/30/2026

Jul 30, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

Which month of the year is National Ice Cream Month?
How many syllables are in the word “Mississippi?”

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Market News

WHEAT FUTURES: The trend is your friend – until the end when it bends, at least in the wheat market after experiencing significant gains today, rising by double digits due to renewed concerns about supply from the Black Sea region and infrastructure strikes. The September 2026 Kansas City wheat contract had a high of approximately $7.55 before trading around $7.31 per bushel, after recovering from profit-taking earlier in the week. The current market is heavily influenced by geopolitical issues in the Black Sea. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a major Russian grain export terminal and a sunflower oil facility near the Kerch Strait, which has increased the risk premium associated with the ongoing conflict. With Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports accounting for 30% of the global market, logistics in the Black Sea, particularly in the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov, are significantly disrupted, forcing alternative transportation methods such as trucks and rail. Moreover, global grain yields are under pressure, with international production facing steep declines due to serious crop concerns in Europe and dry conditions impacting spring wheat.

CROP PROGRESS: Crop progress conditions paint the picture of lack of rains and heat waves across the Midwest. Kansas corn condition ratings are down 10% from the prior week at 54% good to excellent, behind 63% nationally. 70% of Kansas’s crop is silking, just below the 5-year average, while 34% has entered the dough stage. Soybean conditions tell a similar story at 64% good to excellent from 72% good to excellent previously. 63% of beans are blooming, with just 32% starting to set pods. Milo conditions have also dropped with 47% of the crop rated good to excellent after being rated 53% the week before. Nearly 23% of milo is starting to head.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 14.3 million bushels this week – landing 1.2 million bushels above last week’s values and falling in-line with current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 41.8 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 58.6 million bushels, down 4.9 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 11.1 million bushels, with 49.0 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 12.8 million bushels – landing below the running 10-week average and below current week trade estimates. All wheat export sales totaled 10.5 million bushels this week. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 14.5 million bushels – 3.5 million bushels above current trade estimates. No milo export sales were reported this week and export inspections totaled 2.0 million bushels, 0.4 million bushels below export inspection values the week prior.

DAILY LIVESTOCK REPORT: CATTLE FUTURES are currently on the path to recovery after experiencing a sharp decline on Monday. The boxed beef markets are beginning to stabilize, which may help support the cash fed cattle markets. Over the past month, the 5 Area cash market has been trading between $230 and $255, and it is expected to remain steady. Packer bids are currently at $228, countered by offers of $232 or higher, with limited trading activity occurring, except for Monday's $360 dressed business. Additionally, Cargill's idled packing plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, has reached a tentative labor agreement with the union, making rumors of a potential restart in mid-August seem more credible. In terms of border news, prices previously dropped after the USDA announced it would resume Mexican cattle imports on August 24. Lean HOG FUTURES experienced sharp losses in the final 30 minutes of trading yesterday, losing upside momentum since Friday. The spot cutout market also declined, with the cutout price at $101.78, down over $3 from its highs. Notably, the ham market saw significant losses, with prices dropping nearly 10 cents for the 23-27# product. Market stability over the next 30-60 days is now a key focus, as futures open interest has fallen to a 15-month low of 266K contracts. Speculative funds likely maintain a small net short position, while producers have only added minimal coverage, holding historically small positions.

WEATHER: Another hot and sunny day today with a high of 103°F, cooling off to 68°F tonight with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Tomorrow will be cooler, but still 93°F with a north wind 13 – 20 mph. Saturday and Sunday bring more heat and sunshine with highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-60s. Triple digits return Monday and look to continue through Wednesday with a 20% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night.