Weekly Market Update 6/11/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which country is the largest in the world? 

2. Which European explorer discovered a passage that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

RIVER VALLEY WHEAT: GCC will be taking farmer wheat at our River Valley Terminal in Holcomb this wheat harvest. We are excited that our current wheat program will allow us to do so. All HRW entering this facility must be precontracted and meet the specifications required for upcoming trains. For more information or to contract grain into this facility. Please reach out to a member of the Grain Origination team!
 
Current Bid: KWN26 / -.55

WASDE RECAP: This week’s USDA WASDE report hit the commodity snooze button. The 2025/26 corn import values were increased from 25 million bushels to 28 million bushels. Export values were increased by 25 million bushels and ethanol values were decreased by 25 million bushels. Net carryout values for 2025/26 were increased 3 million bushels to 2.145 billion bushels, and a subsequent increased was noted for the 2026/27 marketing year. Globally, both Argentine and Brazil saw an increase in corn stocks, pushing world carryout to 281.22 MMT for 2026/27.

Continuing to kick the can further down the road, soybeans were virtually left unchanged. Crush values were increased by 20 million bushels while exports were decreased by 20 million bushels, leaving total US carryout at a net wash. Globally, Brazilian soybean production was unchanged, while Argentine soybean production was increased by 2 MMT to 50 MMT.  

Again, much of the same story for wheat. Yield values decreased by 0.5 million bushels from May to June, driving a total decrease in production by 18 million bushels, from 2.636 billion bushels to 2.618 billion bushels. Similarly, ending stocks decreased by 18 million bushels.
 
PRESIDENT TRUMP GAVE THE ORDERS:  On Tuesday evening, the U.S. military struck Iranian air defense and surveillance sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran shooting down a U.S. Apache helicopter. In response, Iran launched missiles and drones toward U.S. military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain; however, no damage was reported. President Trump later stated that Iran would "now have to pay the price," indicating plans for a larger military response. He mentioned on Wednesday that the U.S. would attack Iran if no peace deal is reached, potentially targeting power plants and bridges. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as Iran still possesses missiles, drones, and mines in the water.

INTEREST RATE MARKET UPDATE: May inflation numbers are in and gave mixed results. Core CPI came in lower, but headline inflation is back above 4%, driven mostly by energy. All things considered, it seems as though the FED has two options: 1) hold rates and ignore the issues in energy or 2) start strongly considering hikes because inflation is too persistent. Rate hikes are priced in significantly; most likely a hike this year and an 80% chance of a second hike next year. Digging deeper into May’s CPI, energy was the major driver, making up 60% of the increase. Food stayed fairly modest while goods seemed to be improving some. Services are still hot year over year, however shelter is down from the 0.6% mark in April. Consumer sentiment continues to reach new all-time lows as real average hourly earnings are negative for the second month in a row. Comparing hourly earnings to the CPI paints this picture as the CPI is up 4.2% and hourly earnings are only up 3.4%. The FED meets next week for Chairman Warsh’s first meeting and this report looks like rates will hold for now. Unfortunately, the outlook seems pretty bleak moving forward.  

EXPORTS: Weekly corn export inspections reached a five-week high at 75.2 million bushels, exceeding estimates and indicating strong demand. Cumulative corn inspections for the '25/’26 marketing year are at 2.515 billion bushels, up 26.8% year-over-year, on track to exceed the USDA’s 3.300-billion-bushel export target. USDA announced flash sales of 103,000 metric tons of corn to Japan, with a split between old and new crop. Meanwhile, soybean inspections dropped to 14.6 million bushels, with Egypt as the top destination; the cumulative total for the year so far is 427.1 million bushels. Flash sales totaling 264,000 metric tons of new-crop soybeans were also announced, potentially sparking rumors of sales to China. Weekly wheat inspections totaled 11.7 million bushels, aligning with expectations as the new ‘26/’27 wheat marketing year began.  Corn sales remain strong for old and new crops. Milo is minimal. Beans are steady, with a decent week for meal. Wheat projections for PNW, HRW, HRS, and WW are all below expectations.



WEATHER: Windy today with gusts up to 45 mph and lower high temperatures, near 84°F. Friday closes out the work week with milder wind and a high of 88°F. Rain chances return Friday night with a 30% chance of showers between 11pm and 1am. Highs Saturday are back in the low 90s before cooling down to 56°F in the overnight, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday look to be much cooler with highs near 75°F and 20% chances of rain throughout the days and nights. Tuesday highs are near 85°F and sunny before heating back up to 98°F on Wednesday.

Trivia Answers

1.  Russia

2. Magellan