GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > June 2026 > Weekly Market Update 6-25-2026

Weekly Market Update 6/25/2026

Jun 25, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

What was the 50th state to join the United States of America?
What color are the arches at the McDonalds in Sedona Arizona?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

FROZEN IRAN ASSETS: Iran can access its assets only if the United States decides to release them. The White House claims it controls oil revenue from Iranian sales, but this has not been confirmed. The Trump Administration states that Iranian assets are being released for purchasing food and medicine, a message supported by multiple sources within the White House, which lends it some credibility. The Trump Administration claims that resources will be used to purchase U.S. agricultural commodities for Iran. However, Iran has not bought significant agricultural products from the U.S. since 2018 and mainly sourced corn from Brazil in 2025. Confirmation of any U.S. shipments to Iran would support the Administration's statements. U.S. agricultural commodities typically face pressure without significant weather threats. Current forecasts favor good yields for corn and soybeans, supported by strong biofuel demand for soybean oil. While the corn export program is robust, neither crop is expected to run out of supply based on current projections. The market assumes limited sales to Iran and lower-than-promised sales to China, which has a history of failing to fulfill commitments. However, if Iran utilizes its funds to buy U.S. commodities and China meets its promise to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans and $17 billion in other agricultural products, it could significantly impact the economic balance. Time will tell how this unfolds.

YEAR-ROUND E15 PUSH: Awhile back, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to allow year-round E15, moving it to the Senate, which will be anything but an easy road. The White House has now formally asked Congress to legalize year-round sales of the product. The executive office argument is that it would help ease gas prices to help combat price surges from Middle East Tensions. Unlike the House bill, The White House does not include any Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions. It will be interesting to see if this gives enough push to get year-round E15 through the Senate.

CROP PROGRESS: HRW advanced 15 percentage points last week, reaching 40% complete nationwide as of Sunday, up from last year’s 18% and the five-year average of 24%. Kansas is at 58% complete, while Texas is at 77%, 9 points ahead of last year and the five-year average of 68%. Oklahoma’s harvest is 95% complete, up significantly from 73% last week and well ahead of last year's 34%. Crop condition: 26% of winter wheat was rated good to excellent as of June 21, down from 27% the previous week and 23 points below 49% a year ago. Corn condition estimates show 68% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week but down 2 points from last year. Six percent is rated very poor to poor, steady in comparison. Iowa's crop remains 77% good to excellent, while Illinois saw a 6-point decline in its rating due to wind and hail damage. Bean condition estimated that 66% of soybeans that had emerged were in good-to-excellent condition, steady with the previous week and previous year. Meanwhile, Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota -- the top three producing states -- all saw weekly declines in crop ratings, though Iowa and Minnesota both remained above 70% good to excellent.

EXPORT SALES AND INSPECTIONS: Corn export sales totaled 29.3 million bushels this week – falling 16.3 million bushels behind last week’s values but remaining in-line with current trade estimates. New crop corn sales were reported at 29.0 million bushels sold. Current week corn export inspections totaled 57.3 million bushels, down 7.7 million bushels from the week prior. Old crop soybean sales were reported at 16.7 million bushels, with 33.1 million bushels of N/C soybean sales reported. Soybean export inspections for the week were reported at 8.9 million bushels – falling below the running 10-week average and 2.1 million bushels below lower-end trade estimates. All wheat export sales totaled 18.5 million bushels this week. Current week wheat export inspections totaled 14.4 million bushels – falling in-line with current trade estimates. A total of 1.4 million bushels of milo export sales were reported this week and export inspections totaled 1.5 million bushels, 10.9 million bushels below export inspection values the week prior.

WEATHER: Sunny skies have finally returned this afternoon with a high near 80°F. Thunderstorm chances return later this afternoon at 20% increasing to 30% this evening. Tomorrow will be cloudy with a high of 81°F with another 20% chance of thunderstorms between midnight and 1am. Temperatures heat back up over the weekend with Saturday’s high of 97°F and 101°F on Sunday. Next week looks like hot weather will continue with highs in the upper 90s and 20% chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.