Weekly Market Update 3/5/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  What candy was originally known as “chicken feed?”

2. What do you call a piece of land that’s almost — but not entirely — surrounded by water?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

USDA: The USDA will release its March WASDE crop report on Tuesday, but the market is more focused on the quarterly stocks and planting intentions reports due March 31, which are expected to influence prices. By then, the final biofuel guidelines from the EPA should also be available. Meanwhile, President Trump is set to meet with President Xi in Beijing to discuss a trade deal, but it's unclear if soybeans and other commodities will be included. Forecasts for good rains in the Plains and Midwest may lead to a downward trend in prices during this period of uncertainty.

MARKET UPDATE: May corn futures were up 9 ¾-cent to a settlement price of $4.5350 at the close today. Headlines continue to shift and evolve daily as tensions in the Middle East escalate, adding uncertainty to the broader commodity landscape. Corn futures have picked up a bit of war premium as they ride the strength in the crude oil market. The upcoming March supply and demand report next Tuesday isn’t expected bring major changes to the balance sheets, keeping fundamental outlooks relatively steady. However, another strong week of export sales has offered some support for old crop prices.
May soybean futures were up 9 ¾-cents today to $11.7925. Soybean futures are hovering near the 21-month highs reached earlier this week, though momentum has started to fade. Much like corn, the market continues to draw support from strength in crude and soybean oil as geopolitical disruptions tied to the Iran conflict persist. Expectations for increased blending mandates at the end of March, along with a lowered outlook for Brazilian soybean production, have also helped reinforce prices. Even so, much of the trade’s attention is shifting towards the March 31 planting intentions and quarterly stocks report. Adding to the market’s anticipation is the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping around April 1, which could influence future demand prospects.
May wheat futures were up 20 cents to $5.9250 at the close. Much the same story as corn and soybeans, rallying crude oil prices continue to encourage short coverings in the wheat market, leading to double-digit gains today. Wheat futures have now climbed to their highest levels since last summer as added market volatility adds to the complex. The market is also finding support from growing converns over deteroriating crop ratings across the Plains. In Kansas, the winter wheat crop was rated 58% good to excellent at the start of the week – down from 61% this time last month. Shifting conditions have added another layer of uncertainty to an already reactive market environment.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ: Though a rather narrow channel of water between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz has been a major trade route since ancient times. Once known for moving various textiles from China, the Strait is now one of the major avenues for global energy. According to Reuters, nearly 2.5 million metric tons of oil flowed through the Strait daily in 2025, making it #2 in the world. On top of oil, nearly 33% of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Several conflicts over the years have led to trade disruptions due to location. The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed as Iran has threatened to “set ships ablaze.” The U.S. has countered, offering to give ships naval escorts through the Strait, if necessary, in an attempt to reassure U.S. markets. There has been an 80% decrease in shipments through the Strait, which has been felt globally in the energy and fertilizer markets. Several Asian countries, as well as other Middle Eastern countries economies are the most vulnerable as a large chunk of their imports and exports flow through the area. This complicates United States markets due to the trade volume of oil and fertilizer. Oil prices could very well reach triple digits, possibly reaching the all-time highs of $130 per barrel that were seen during the 2007-08 oil shock.

EXPORTS: Inspected corn bushels this week were down from the prior week but still better than expected at 73.2 million bu. No surprises in the destinations, with Mexico taking the largest number of bushels, followed by South Korea and Japan. Strong sales were reported this week, with 79.6 million bu sold. The market is recovering after last week’s disappointing performance. This week saw some interesting shifts in buyer activity, with South Korea purchasing over 20 million bushels, followed by Colombia and Mexico, which completed the top three buyers. There were 6.1 million bushels of new crop sales, primarily purchased by Japan. The Wheat continued the choppy pattern, with a slower week led by the Philippines and S. Korea taking WW & HRS. HRW loaded for Tanzania from the Gulf, and Japan & Indonesia from the PNW. Totaling 12.6 million bushels inspected for the current week. Wheat sales nearly missed estimates again last week, with 7.5 million bu reported, led by Mexico and Indonesia, with HRW accounting for most of the business in Indonesia. 2.0 million reported for NC sales. Milo shipped 9.4 million bu during the week, 1.5 million better than the previous week, with China as the destination. Milo sold 0.6 million, with no reported new-crop sales.



WEATHER: Foggy today with highs near 73°F and some sunshine as fog should clear off around noon. Winds increase today and tomorrow with south winds around 30mph and gusts as high as 44mph. Friday highs are near 68°F with sunny skies. Overnight lows drop to 27°F before warming up Saturday to 58°F. Sunday begins another warm stretch with a high of 73°F moving into the upper 70s through Tuesday. Tuesday night brings a 40% chance of showers before cooling off Wednesday to 56°F
 

Trivia Answers

1.  Candy Corn

2. A peninsula