Weekly Market Update 10/1/2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which branch of the U.S. armed forces used the slogan, “It’s not just a job, it’s an adventure”?

2. Who wrote “To Kill a Mockingbird”?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

 USDA STOCKS REPORT: The September Stock report was released yesterday and was bearish for corn markets but generally supportive for soybeans and wheat. The biggest surprise was a much larger-than-expected corn inventory. Corn stocks as of September 1 were estimated at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from this time last year, and well above the average pre-report trade estimate of 1.918 billion bushels.

Soybean stocks were reported at 315 million bushels, down 3% from last year and coming in slightly lower than trade estimates at 324 million bushels. United States soybeans stocks are seeing a three-year low fresh out of the gate for the 26/27 marketing year. Crushing demand is happening at a record pace and an abundance in moisture across the Midwest has interrupted the movement of fresh supplies into the market.

All wheat stocks came in at 1.85 billion bushels, down 14% from this time last year and below pre-report estimates. Despite ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea, weak export sales continue to show little global interest in U.S. wheat supplies.

Market reactions were immediate, with corn futures falling sharply as traders and analysts digested the large stocks figure as we’re now faced with a sizeable supply overhang. The remaining focus will now shift to harvest progress as drier conditions are expected to move into the Midwest later this week.

The USDA’s next WASDE report is set to be released on October 9, 2026.


SOVECON: Has significantly reduced its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecasts, citing ongoing logistical constraints and continued disruptions across the Azov-Black Sea corridor. With normal port operations not expected to resume before 2027 and export infrastructure damage continuing to impede grain flows, Russian exporters are being forced to rely more heavily on slower and less efficient rail, Caspian Sea, and Baltic shipping routes. Going forward, Russian wheat exports are projected at 36.7 MMT, the lowest since 2021/22 and about 20% below last season. The tighter Black Sea supply outlook has supported wheat futures and increased buyer interest in alternative origins; Helping boost market sentiment.

CROP PROGRESS: Rain has certainly pumped the brakes on fall harvest, but as of September 27, Kansas harvest progress was above last year and the five-year average. Corn harvest is estimated at 48% complete compared to 28% at this time a year ago and 40% over the last five years. Last year, soybean harvest was just 4% completed compared to 13% harvested this year and 10% over the last five years. Milo is also above last year at 12% harvested vs. 7% a year ago. Corn and soybean conditions have decreased just slightly since the prior week with corn at 39% good to excellent and soybeans rated 36% good to excellent. Milo conditions have also declined, with just 24% of the Kansas crop rated good to excellent, with just over half the crop mature.

EXPORTS: Today Corn and wheat export sales are meh, totaling just 21.1 million and 10.6 million bushels, respectively, near the low end of expectations. Both markets turned lower after early gains, with corn pressured by bearish September 1 stocks data. While Black Sea disruptions could eventually shift demand to the U.S., export sales remain well behind last year's pace, down 30.9% for corn and 30.8% for wheat. Question is can these lower prices attract additional buyer interest. Soybean sales reached 38.0 million bushels, topping expectations and led by China. Total 2026/27 sales now stand at 817 million bushels, nearly double last year's pace and the strongest in four years. Despite robust demand, soybean prices remain under pressure as improved U.S. harvest weather and favorable September rains in Brazil support production prospects and encourage farmer selling.

 WEATHER: Another cool, wet, and breezy day today, with rain likely through much of the day, a high near 66°F, and north winds gusting up to 31 mph. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM Thursday. Conditions improve quickly afterward, with sunshine returning Friday and lasting through the weekend and Monday. Highs gradually climb from the mid-60s Friday to the mid-70s by Sunday/Monday, with overnight lows mainly in the 40s and 50s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures approach 78°F, with only a slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Trivia Answers

1.  The Navy

2. Harper Lee