GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > October 2026 > Weekly Market Update 10-15-2026

Weekly Market Update 10/15/2026

Oct 15, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

The first televised U.S. presidential debate was between Kennedy and which other candidate?
Who is the only US president to ever serve more than two terms?

Market News

GRAIN REPORT: Recent USDA data pressured grain markets as larger corn and soybean crops increased production and carryout estimates, while wheat saw limited balance sheet changes. Rain has slowed harvest progress at times but improved soil moisture and planting conditions for the winter wheat crop.

WHEAT: The domestic HRW wheat market remains strongest in the truck market, where the rail demand has been slower, with mills buying only as needed. Export inspections have stayed steady, but HRW shipment demand remains limited, as Asian buyers continue to source cheaper wheat supplies out of the Pacific Northwest.

CORN: Local basis has remained steady as we focus on harvest and hold off on additional sales after the recent drop in futures prices. Freight costs and logistics challenges could shift demand in the coming weeks, and basis levels may need to strengthen to encourage more grain movement. Export demand remains fairly quiet, with PNW bids better defined but still weaker than a month ago due to new crop supplies entering the market. Gulf bids have been slightly firmer, supported by harvest delays and limited farmer selling.

MILO: Local basis remains flat as harvest continues, buyers wait for new demand to emerge. Milo will keep moving to meet ethanol and feed needs, but farmer selling is limited. On the export side, demand remains disappointing, with only a small amount being shipped to China. While there is still hope that export demand could improve, the market has yet to see any meaningful signs of that happening.

BEANS: Processor bids have been mostly steady as new crop beans continue to move in, though the local crop looks smaller than normal. Cargill in Wichita raised its nearby bid this week to encourage deliveries, and there is potential for some export demand if quality bean supplies are available. Export bids were mostly unchanged, with demand beginning to improve, but the market is still working through quality and logistics issues that surfaced early in harvest.

NOPA CRUSH: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released their September crush report earlier today and values seemed to fall short of analyst expectations. September crush was reported at 196.3 million bushels, which was down from the 205.5 million bushels crushed in August. Values didn’t quite hit the average trade estimate of 203.7 million bushels and fell below last Septembers’ 197.9 million bushels. Cumulative crush for the first portion of the 2026/27 marketing year has started off slightly behind the pace seen in 2025/26. Current USDA crush estimate is projected to increase 5% across the marketing year (+134 million bushels). Post report release, soybean futures immediately fell 5-6 cents but have regained some of that initial loss thanks to bullish oil stock values.

INTEREST RATE MARKET: Update Inflation is proving far more stubborn than hoped. September CPI came in hot, with headline inflation rising 0.6% and annual inflation holding at 3.7%, while core inflation increased 0.3% for a third straight month. Although surging gasoline prices remain the biggest driver, the bigger concern is that price pressures are spreading across a wider range of categories, from travel and recreation to vehicles and technology. Markets responded by pushing interest rates higher and pricing in another Fed rate hike this year, but for now the outlook remains a tug-of-war between persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve still willing to wait for more evidence before making its next move.

WEATHER:Cooler fall weather will dominate through the end of the week, with breezy north winds, highs mainly in the mid-50s to low 60s, and overnight lows falling into the 20s and 30s. Widespread frost is expected early Saturday morning following a low near 27 degrees Friday night. Conditions remain dry with abundant sunshine, and temperatures gradually warm over the weekend, reaching the low 60s Saturday and near 70 Sunday. The warming trend continues into next week, with highs climbing into the 70s by Monday and Tuesday and approaching 80 degrees by midweek.