GCC Weekly Market Commentary > 2026 > October 2026 > Weekly Market Update 10-23-2026

Weekly Market Update 10/23/2026

Oct 23, 2026

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

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Market News

MARKET UPDATE: Another week of “meh” in the markets as wheat and corn have been mixed to lower while beans are finally finding some positive footing. Corn has slowly fallen lower on a lack of headlines. Exports have been slightly better, but still about 10% behind the USDA’s target pace. Harvest is still dragging along at just 44% complete as of last week with more rain in the forecast in the coming days. Wheat has essentially fallen off the wagon as December KC Wheat is down nearly 42 cents from the open on Monday and the July 27 contract down 38 cents. The downtrend is driven by favorable early growing conditions for the winter wheat crop as well as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Soybeans found themselves higher after several straight sessions in the red. China is nearing the halfway point to its 25mmt soybean trade target. Since October 14, China has bought approximately 2.4mmt of US beans through flash sales. With harvest rolling quickly in the US, soybeans have the potential to see higher yield numbers before the USDA January final report.

ENERGY: The energy markets reacted to a policy announcement from President Trump, who invoked the Defense Production Act to support oil production and refining. The move is viewed more as a signal that the administration is focused on lowering fuel costs than as an immediate solution to supply constraints. While the action could provide some support for future refinery capacity and diesel production, any meaningful impact on fuel supplies is still likely months or years away. As a result, the announcement is not expected to significantly improve winter fuel inventories, though it may help limit bullish sentiment in energy markets. Broader geopolitical risks, particularly concerns surrounding Iran, remain the primary driver of elevated energy prices.

CROP PROGRESS: Corn harvest reached 44% complete, up 11 percentage points from the prior week but 5 points below analyst expectations, while soybean harvest reached 64% complete, up 18 points but 2 points below estimates. Both crops remain at their slowest harvest pace since the wet 2019 season and continue to trail their respective five-year averages. The largest delays are concentrated in the Corn Belt, with Iowa corn harvest running 24% behind its five-year average and Nebraska soybean harvest 19% behind average. Improved field conditions this week allowed farmers to accelerate harvest activity, especially with rain chances returning this weekend, to make progress before weather disruptions. On crop conditions, soybean ratings were discontinued after harvest moved beyond the halfway mark. Meanwhile, corn condition ratings held steady at 56% good-to-excellent, matching trade expectations. HRW planting remains at a record-slow pace, reaching 63% complete, slightly below expectations. Progress improved in the Eastern Midwest, led by Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan, though Ohio remains 24% behind its five-year average. South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado have caught up to normal, while Kansas and Oklahoma continue to lag. Recent rain slowed fieldwork but boosted soil moisture, supporting planting once fields dry.

EXPORTS: Wheat Export inspections missed estimates and posted the slowest week of shipments since mid-July, with major destinations confined to Vietnam, Egypt, Japan, and Mexico. Corn inspections. Meh the report was disappointing, with a sharp decline from the week prior, and falling below the estimate range for the week. One positive looking forward is that with the drop in futures, the corn market is getting more competitive to Brazilian corn so hopefully that’ll drive some business our way. Export sales were mixed this week. Corn sales were strong at 60.1 million bushels, a six-week high led by Mexico, while soybean sales surged to 104.4 million bushels, their strongest weekly total since November 2023, fueled by continued Chinese demand. Corn export commitments remain behind last year’s pace, but this week's improvement was encouraging. Wheat sales disappointed at just 8.8 million bushels, a six-week low and below expectations. Wheat export commitments now trail last year by 32.5% and are at their slowest pace in at least 14 years, while larger Argentine production could add further competition in global markets.

WEATHER: Warm, breezy conditions will continue through the end of the week, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s this afternoon before cooling into the upper 50s overnight. The weekend turns more unsettled, with increasing cloud cover and scattered shower chances on Saturday, followed by a much wetter pattern on Sunday and Sunday night when widespread rain and possible thunderstorms could bring over an inch of total precipitation. Cooler temperatures in the mid-60s are expected early next week, with lingering shower chances on Monday before drier conditions return Tuesday and Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain seasonable through midweek, with highs generally in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees.